B.C.'s COVID-19 modellers 'cautiously optimistic' fourth wave is in decline
The next three weeks should see COVID-19 cases gradually decline in all regions of the province, according to projections from the B.C. COVID-19 modelling group, which is made up of professors from several top universities.
“Approximately right now we are declining at a rate of two per cent a day. That’s not very fast, but if you look at it over a period of many weeks, that will get us down to much more reasonable levels of infections,” said University of Victoria professor and modelling group member Dean Karlen.
The case numbers are projected to drop across all regions, albeit much less dramatically in Northern Health.
“So we are not seeing rapid growth in some places and rapid declines in others that are balancing out. It’s either steady or declining in all health regions across B.C., so that’s a good sign,” said SFU professor and fellow modelling group member Caroline Colijn.
The projections include a modest drop in hospitalizations and ICU admissions. But they’re only looking at the next three weeks.
“The past has demonstrated that our projections are reliable out to that kind of a time period, but beyond that, things can dramatically change,” said Karlen.
Some highly vaccinated European countries are experiencing a dramatic change in their COVID-19 numbers.
“Something has happened over the last few weeks that has caused so many countries to change from where we were - a slow decline - to a very rapid growth in COVID once again,” said Karlen. “We have to remain vigilant and realize a similar situation could happen in B.C.”
British Columbia’s vaccination rate, now just shy of 90 per cent for first doses among the eligible population, should help prevent a resurgence. But Colijn believes we need to be careful.
“I think we should still be on guard, because selection will be favouring new viruses that can get into immunized individuals,” she said.
While both Colijn and Karlen describe themselves as “cautiously optimistic” that the worst of B.C’s the fourth wave is behind us, Karlen warns "if we get overly optimistic we lower our guard, and you know what happens.”
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Spectacular aurora light show to be seen across Canada Friday night
A rare and severe solar storm is expected to bring spectacular displays of the northern lights, also known as aurora borealis, across much of Canada and parts of the United States on Friday night.
Which Canadian cities have the highest and lowest grocery prices?
Where you live plays a big factor in what you pay at the grocery store. And while it's no secret the same item may have a different price depending on the store, city or province, we wanted to see just how big the differences are, and why.
McGill University seeks emergency injunction to dismantle pro-Palestinian encampment
McGill University has filed a request for an injunction to have the pro-Palestinian encampment removed from its campus.
Swarm of 20,000 bees gather around woman’s car west of Toronto
A swarm of roughly 20,000 bees gathered around a woman’s car in the parking lot of Burlington Centre.
U.S. says Israel's use of U.S. arms likely violated international law, but evidence is incomplete
The Biden administration said Israel's use of U.S.-provided weapons in Gaza likely violated international humanitarian law but wartime conditions prevented U.S. officials from determining that for certain in specific airstrikes.
Barron Trump declines to serve as an RNC delegate
Former U.S. President Donald Trump's youngest son, Barron Trump, has declined to serve as a delegate at this summer’s Republican National Convention, according to a senior Trump campaign adviser and a statement from Melania Trump's office.
Mother assaulted by stranger while breastfeeding baby in her car: Vancouver police
A person was arrested in East Vancouver Thursday after allegedly entering a car while a mother was breastfeeding her four-month-old boy.
'We have laws': Premier Smith says police action justified in Calgary
The actions, including the decision to use non-lethal force, to disperse pro-Palestinian protesters from the University of Calgary campus were justified, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Friday.
'State or state-sponsored actor' believed to be behind B.C. government hacks
The head of British Columbia’s civil service has revealed that a “state or state-sponsored actor” is behind multiple cyber-security incidents against provincial government networks.