Where will B.C.'s election be won or lost? Here are five bellwether ridings to watch

British Columbia voters are heading to the polls, and political podcast co-host Mike McDonald says he is watching five ridings as bellwethers.

Here are the five ridings he's watching as indicators of whether the NDP or the B.C. Conservatives will form government, and why:

Nanaimo-Lantzville

McDonald says one of the key factors in determining bellwethers is a history of centre-right support in places that swung to the NDP in 2020.

Nanaimo-Lantzville is a new riding, carved mostly out of Nanaimo and Parksville-Qualicum, both of which went to the NDP in 2020.

McDonald says Parksville-Qualicum in particular had been held by the BC Liberals since 1996 until Adam Walker's victory for the NDP in 2020. But Walker has since been removed from the NDP caucus and is running for re-election as an Independent.

Meanwhile, the B.C. Conservatives are running Gwen O'Mahony, another former NDP MLA, who represented Chilliwack-Hope from 2012 to 2013.

North Vancouver-Seymour

This Metro Vancouver riding had been BC Liberal territory from 1991 to 2020, when Susie Chant became the first New Democrat to win there since 1972.

McDonald says while the riding had been held for decades by the BC Liberals, the centre-right margin of victory had been diminishing from 32 percentage points in 2009 before it ultimately flipped to the NDP.

He says the heavily urban riding is "not a great fit" for the B.C. Conservatives' and their rural lean but it may still swing right if the momentum for change carries into Metro Vancouver.

Surrey-Cloverdale

This is a rare riding where two sitting MLAs will battle for a place in the next legislature.

NDP incumbent Mike Starchuk won the riding in 2020 with 52 per cent of the vote, but it had previously been staunch BC Liberal turf, all the way back to 1991 when the riding was created.

Starchuk faces one of the highest-profile candidates on the B.C. Conservative slate: Elenore Sturko, the MLA for Surrey South who won that riding as a star candidate for BC United. But she defected to the Conservatives this year to run in Surrey-Cloverdale.

McDonald says this may be the front line between B.C. Conservative support in the Fraser Valley and the NDP's base in urban areas, the so-called "orange wall."

Langley-Willowbrook

McDonald calls this another "orange wall" riding.

He says the newly created riding has experienced demographic changes spurred by urban families spreading out in search of affordability, making it "kind of an NDP place."

Incumbent New Democrat Andrew Mercier won in 2020 with 47 per cent of the vote when the riding was known as Langley. The new riding comprises mostly of that seat that had gone to BC Liberal or Social Credit candidates in every previous election back to 1966.

Maple Ridge East

This riding has sided with the party that formed government in every provincial election since 2001.

It is held by the NDP's Bob D'Eith while the Conservatives are running political newcomer Lawrence Mok.

McDonald notes that every riding he has chosen as a bellwether includes a Green party candidate. He says the Greens have seen some momentum as the NDP shifts to the centre in response to the Conservatives on policies such as the carbon tax and involuntary care.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.