Only 'modest' drop in Vancouver home prices forecast for 2023: Royal LePage

The Vancouver skyline is seen from the Cambie Street Bridge in April 2020. (Eleni Gardikiotis, submitted through our app, Weather Watch by CTV Vancouver)

Housing prices in the Vancouver area might only experience a "modest" decrease over the next 12 months, according to a new forecast from Royal LePage.

While the company is expecting prices to continue falling into 2023, forecasters are anticipating real estate will rebound by the fourth quarter – leaving the aggregate price of a Vancouver home down just one per cent year-over-year, at around $1.22 million.

That could mean a short window for potential buyers hoping to take advantage of the slowed down real estate market, said Sean Burns, managing partner at Royal LePage Coast Capital and Sterling Realty.

Burns told CTV News there's some debate over whether prices will rebound in spring or summer – but that it's widely expected to be one or the other.

"I think a lot of people will look back at November, this month and next month as the window they should have gotten into the market," he added.

Royal LePage's Market Survey Forecast predicts single-family detached properties will see a more significant decrease of two per cent by fourth quarter 2023, which would bring the median price to $1.64 million.

The median price of condos, meanwhile, is expected to increase by one per cent, reaching $747,299 over the same period.

While prices have been decreasing since the Bank of Canada began implementing a series of interest rate hikes back in March, Royal LePage noted there were years of price appreciation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

If the company's forecast for next year proves accurate, Burns said prices would still remain well above pre-pandemic levels – though he acknowledged unanticipated challenges could arise that impact both the housing market and the economy at large.

"You know, hopefully we don't see another pandemic," Burns said. "There are wars in the world. And our economy will follow the U.S. – though even this morning the U.S. announced really strong economic growth."

Royal LePage said so far, the limited impact of rising interest rates on housing prices has "not followed historical patterns," which the company chalked up to a number of factors buoying the market, including ongoing issues with supply and pent-up demand among buyers who have waited by the sidelines throughout the global crisis.

"Even now, in December, it's very unusual but on some properties we're seeing competing offers, and it's because there's hardly any product out there available for purchase," Burns said.