Modelling group predicts B.C.'s daily COVID-19 infection numbers will spike above 1,000 again

Vancouver -

An independent COVID-19 modelling group made up of researchers from British Columbia universities has released new data predicting a dramatic spike in daily COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions unless more regional restrictions are imposed.

“This higher transmission rate of the Delta variant is really taking advantage of communities that have lower vaccination rates,” said Dr. Sarah Otto, a UBC zoology professor and one of the report’s authors.

“At this point, we are solidly into the next wave of this pandemic due to Delta.”

According to the model, case counts could exceed 1,000 per day by September.

Asked about the independent modelling on Friday, Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry seemed to downplay the findings.

“Even with Delta, we know the vaccines are still very effective against that virus,” she said. "We're seeing a decoupling, a de-linking of hospitalizations."

Throughout the pandemic, hospitalization and ICU numbers have typically climbed shortly after new case spikes – and the modelling group expects to see that happen again.

“We’re dealing with a variant that’s just that much more transmissible and also that much more severe, landing people in hospital at roughly twice the rate,” said Otto. “The prediction is that we’re going to see hospitalizations and ICU rates at the highest levels we’re seen throughout this pandemic by the end of August unless we start acting now.”

For the Central Okanagan, which includes Kelowna and several surrounding communities, the province has re-imposed a mask mandate and gathering limits. Bars and nightclubs have been ordered to close and restaurants must stop serving alcohol at 10 p.m.

Otto is calling for similar measures in other communities as well.

“We’re seeing in the Central Okanagan high case rates. And that’s about 44 per 100,000,” she said. “But Nelson, Nechako, Arrow Lakes are other local health authorities that have over 20 cases per 100,000 and low vaccination rates.”

With the province set to lift most remaining pandemic restrictions as early as Sept. 7, Henry has not ruled out more regional-based restrictions.

“Right now, we’re taking the measures that we need to address the situation that we’re in today,” said Henry. “And we’ll continue to do that. And we’ll continue to tell you as we learn more.”

The province continues to focus on immunization as the primary tool in the COVID fight, but it’s the areas with low vaccination rates that have members of the independent COVID-19 modelling group concerned.