Greater Vancouver home sales to flatten while prices inch up, forecast says

Office towers, condos and apartment buildings are seen in downtown and the West End of Vancouver, on Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

Vancouver -

Home sales in Greater Vancouver are predicted to stay in line with last year's slower pace, while prices inch up slightly.

The forecasts are contained in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's outlook for 2023 released Tuesday.

Historically, the report says rapidly escalating mortgage rates haven't had as big a negative affect on prices as they have had on sales in Metro Vancouver.

It predicts 28,500 home sales in 2023, a 2.6 per cent decrease from last year.

While the current downturn has resulted in a price decline of about 10 per cent, the forecast says steady population growth in Metro Vancouver will underpin prices and maintain or even increase values.

It says the average home price this year for apartments, attached and detached homes is expected to climb slightly to $1.2 million, a 1.4 per cent increase.

However, the report says the risks to its predictions are an economic recession and even higher mortgage rates.

“The precise impact of a recession on the Metro Vancouver real estate market is difficult to predict since it largely hinges on the severity of the recession and the Bank of Canada's policy response,” the report says.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 31, 2023.