B.C. could be in for a 'mild recession,' economic forecaster says

While food prices go up, economists expect B.C. housing sales to slow and prices to fall, a combination that one expert says could bring a "mild recession."

Derek Burleton, the deputy chief economist, for TD said he expects B.C.'s economic growth will be close to zero, something that brings with it anxiety about potential job losses and the continuing increase of the cost of living. 

"I think, we may see a mild recession," Burleton told CTV News. Adding, the province is "not looking at anything too severe – but it won’t feel that good."

Economic forecasters met with Finance Minister Selina Robinson in Victoria Monday to look at the province's financial outlook for 2023. In a statement, Robinson says B.C.'s position is "steady" although growth is expected to be slow.

"We're entering this period of slower growth and challenging global economic times in a strong position to continue supporting people," she wrote, saying projected growth for 2023 is 0.4 per cent down from an anticipated 2.7 per cent.

Speaking to reporters, she hinted more help may be coming those who have less of a cushion to absorb higher interest rates and continued inflation.

"The people who are lower income feel the squeeze more because it's about housing, it's about food. So supporting them, (economic forcasters) recognize, is a valuable tool," explained Robinson.

Economists believe housing prices may come down, but won't necessarily become affordable. 

In recent weeks, disability advocates and the BC Greens have called on the government to increase assistance rates.

MLA Adam Olson said people on disability assistance are living thousands of dollars below the poverty line. He participated in the economic forecast meeting and said several experts took note of recent government spending.

"We did hear from economists here who basically cautioned against 'Eby bucks," Olson said, using the phrase to refer to the more than one billion dollars in relief measures announced by the new premier

Economists warn this year's anticipated five billion dollar surplus won't repeat next year. Prompting some debate about whether now – when the province is flush with cash – is the right time for an election call.

On Wednesday, Eby will announce changes to his cabinet.

Opposition finance critic Peter Milobar noted the province's election law which states the next general voting day will be in October 2024.

"But if the premier decides to be a political opportunist with a bit of a surplus then we'll be ready for that election as well," Milobar told CTV News.

When asked by reporters if a snap election call was in the cards David Eby has repeatedly said no. His predecessor, John Horgan, said the same for months, before changing his mind and sending voters to the polls two years earlier than scheduled.