Vancouver real estate market beginning downturn that could last 2 years, expert says
A Vancouver real estate and property tax expert believes Vancouver’s real estate market is seeing the start of a downturn that could last up to two years.
The comments come after a prediction from the Royal Bank of Canada that the country, B.C. and Ontario in particular, will see big price drops next year.
"We expect downward price pressure to be more intense in Vancouver, Toronto and other pricey markets," assistant chief economist Robert Hogue wrote in RBC's latest housing outlook.
"By comparison, we expect activity and prices to be more resilient in Alberta, where local markets have more catching up to do following a prolonged slump before the pandemic."
British Columbia's aggregate price is expected to dip 3.8 per cent in 2023, down to about $1.02 million. That's the biggest drop forecast across the country, ahead of the 2.3 per cent decrease anticipated in Ontario.
Paul Sullivan is a B.C. property tax expert and Ryan LLC principal who leads the Business Tax Alliance, a partnership with B.C. Business Improvement Associations. He said the market is changing in an almost perfect storm of circumstances.
“You couldn’t have much worse going on in the world - you got war, we got interest rates, we have a supply chain crisis,” Sullivan said. “It’s kind of set up for a pretty bad scenario.”
Sullivan said even though the price of housing is coming down, it won’t help affordability. Record high inflation and interest rate increases mean buyers can afford less, and it’s getting harder to build.
“We have incredibly high pricing on materials with all the transportation issues and we have a labour shortage,” he said. “The price of delivering new homes to the market is going through the roof right now.”
The RBC forecast predicts “prices peaking this spring as market sentiment sours” then coming down.
“I would disagree with that comment,” Sullivan said. “I think prices spiked already in the last quarter or even end of last year. The demand level has already come down and interest rates are going to exacerbate that.”
As for how long the downturn will last, Sullivan said Vancouver typically has short real estate cycles but believes this time, it will last longer.
“I think values are going to go down for longer than 6 or 12 months this time - we’re going to be in a downtick for maybe as long as two years,” he said.
With files from CTV News Vancouver's Andrew Weichel
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Widow looking for answers after Quebec man dies in Texas Ironman competition
The widow of a Quebec man who died competing in an Ironman competition is looking for answers.
Tom Mulcair: Park littered with trash after 'pilot project' is perfect symbol of Trudeau governance
Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair says that what's happening now in a trash-littered federal park in Quebec is a perfect metaphor for how the Trudeau government runs things.
World seeing near breakdown of international law amid wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Amnesty says
The world is seeing a near breakdown of international law amid flagrant rule-breaking in Gaza and Ukraine, multiplying armed conflicts, the rise of authoritarianism and huge rights violations in Sudan, Ethiopia and Myanmar, Amnesty International warned Wednesday as it published its annual report.
Photographer alleges he was forced to watch Megan Thee Stallion have sex and was unfairly fired
A photographer who worked for Megan Thee Stallion said in a lawsuit filed Tuesday that he was forced to watch her have sex, was unfairly fired soon after and was abused as her employee.
Amid concerns over 'collateral damage' Trudeau, Freeland defend capital gains tax change
Facing pushback from physicians and businesspeople over the coming increase to the capital gains inclusion rate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his deputy Chrystia Freeland are standing by their plan to target Canada's highest earners.
U.S. Senate passes bill forcing TikTok's parent company to sell or face ban, sends to Biden for signature
The Senate passed legislation Tuesday that would force TikTok's China-based parent company to sell the social media platform under the threat of a ban, a contentious move by U.S. lawmakers that's expected to face legal challenges.
Wildfire southwest of Peace River spurs evacuation order
People living near a wildfire burning about 15 kilometres southwest of Peace River are being told to evacuate their homes.
U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passes aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with big bipartisan vote
The U.S. Senate has passed US$95 billion in war aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, sending the legislation to President Joe Biden after months of delays and contentious debate over how involved the United States should be in foreign wars.
'My stomach dropped': Winnipeg man speaks out after being criminally harassed following single online date
A Winnipeg man said a single date gone wrong led to years of criminal harassment, false arrests, stress and depression.