B.C. Conservatives plan $11B deficit in first year, higher than NDP or Greens

A costed policy platform delivered by the B.C. Conservatives in the final days of the province's election campaign includes promises to kick start the economy and balance the books with forecasts of economic growth of more than five per cent, but only after several years of multi-billion-dollar deficit budgets.

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad said Tuesday that if elected on Oct. 19, his party's plans for economic reforms and tax cuts would produce a balanced budget at some point during a second term in office.

But he said his first budget would include a deficit forecast nearing $11 billion, which is higher than the approximately $9.6 billion deficit forecast by both the New Democrats and the Greens under their plans.

"I'm not going to be coming in and being draconian and say there should be cuts," he said at a news conference at the University of B.C. campus. "We want to make sure we protect the front-line services that are needed in B.C."

Rustad said his platform, called a "Common Sense Change for B.C.," will get the provincial economy growing with strategic new spending, the reallocation of wasteful NDP funding to priority areas, a core review and audit of NDP spending, including a revision of current and planned government capital projects.

"The difference between us and the NDP is the NDP has been reckless in terms of their spending approaches," he said. "They've spent a lot on ideology, and so we obviously are going to be taking a significant review of where government has been spending money."

The platform promises more than $4 billion in tax cuts, including the elimination of B.C.'s carbon tax, a promised rent and mortgage rebate and a reduction in the small business tax to one per cent, Rustad said.

It also includes “major operating spending commitments” worth about $1.5 billion in 2025-2026, and $3.7 billion in 2026-2027.

Rustad's platform — which does not list any tax hikes — said its increased spending and budget deficits will be offset by an additional $10.4 billion in annual revenue by 2030 due to the forecast of growth of 5.4 per cent a year, compared with the “NDP scenario” of 3.1 per cent growth.

The six-page document does not provide an annual cost breakdown that explains how Rustad arrived at his first-year deficit figure.

Both the NDP and B.C. Conservative growth forecasts are well in excess of most other predictions, with TD Bank estimating 1.9 per cent real GDP growth in 2026 in B.C., while the Conference Board of Canada estimates growth in the province will average 2.1 per cent in 2027 and 2028.

Bryan Yu, chief economist at Vancouver's Central 1, said the B.C. Conservatives forecast of 5.4 per cent growth is "not completely out of the ordinary, I would say if you were looking at a longer period of time."

"Around B.C., we've consistently had pretty good growth in terms of the economy in real terms over the last decade," he said.

But Yu said wrestling a budget deficit from $11 billion to balanced could involve some cuts depending on how quickly a government wants to move.

"When it comes to bringing that deficit down, it is a question of where and what parties are looking to do in terms of reducing," he said. "Are they going to cut services? Are they going to reduce health care? Something kind of has to be reduced in order to bring those numbers down if you want to get it done quickly."

New Democrat MLA Niki Sharma said in a statement that the B.C. Conservatives' platform contains no new spending for health care.

"After claiming for weeks he would make new investments in health care, there is no new health spending in Rustad’s late-to-the-game platform," she said.

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau said in a statement the B.C. Conservatives' platform does not include a detailed outline of their economic plan.

"Their budget relies on magical thinking, assuming 5.4 per cent annual economic growth every year for the next six years, without any plan on how to achieve this," she said.

She said earlier it was "laughable" that Rustad took so long to release his costings.

Rustad said the B.C. Conservative platform is a path forward for B.C. after seven years of NDP governments.

"It talks about what we need to be doing in this province," he said. "It talks about how we need to overcome the seven years of devastation we've seen under the NDP, with the sea of red ink we have in this province and nothing to show for it."

Earlier Tuesday, New Democrat Leader David Eby made a late appeal to voters to support the NDP even if they never had before.

Speaking about one hour before Rustad released his party's costed platform, Eby said there hadn't been an election as significant "for a generation."

"This is an incredibly close election," Eby said at a news conference at a housing construction project in Surrey. "Every vote is going to count, right across the province."

Elections BC said about 597,000 people have already voted in four days of advance polling.

Eby stood at a construction site in Surrey with a sign in the background parodying anti-NDP political billboards put up outside the home of Vancouver billionaire Chip Wilson during the campaign.

"John Rustad will give tax breaks to billionaires and speculators, that's why they are making signs," said the NDP billboard.

Eby's campaign event focused on two of the NDP's major themes during the election campaign — housing and attacking Rustad's B.C. Conservatives — especially on what he said is the conspiratorial views of the leader himself and several of his candidates.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 15, 2024.