What are the chances of a BC United-BC Conservative merger before the 2024 election?

Seven months away from voters deciding who will form B.C.'s next government, the latest opinion poll suggests the NDP continues to hold a strong lead.

The Angus Reid Institute survey, released Monday, found 43 per cent of respondents intend to vote NDP, while BC United and BC Conservatives remain tied for second, with the BC Greens in fourth.

The same poll does offer a glimmer of hope for the opposition – 51 per cent of those surveyed say they think it's time for a change in government.

Where that change lies and what it means is something very different, because only 22 per cent, respectively, choose either BC United or the BC Conservatives.

With Kevin Falcon’s BC United and John Rustad’s BC Conservatives seemingly in a dead heat, pundits say vote splitting on the right of centre is a real issue. Political scientist Hamish Telford says failing a major collapse by the NDP, October’s election could be an NDP romp.

“What one of the opposition parties has to hope for is a catastrophic collapse for the other centre-right party,” said Telford, a professor at the University of the Fraser Valley.

It once again raises the issue of a merger between the two parties, something 32 per cent of those canvassed in a Research Co. poll supported as recently as January, as did more than half of those who voted for the party now called BC United.

“About a third of British Columbians .. would welcome the idea of a unified centre-right party encompassing the BC United and BC Conservatives, and the group who wants this most is the BC Liberal voter from 2020,” said Mario Canseco, president of Research Co.

Rustad told CTV News Tuesday that his party approached BC United after February’s budget, but the response didn't sit well with him.

“What we got back was, 'We're interested in having a conversation – but Kevin Falcon will be dictating the terms,'” said Rustad.

And there's clearly bad blood between the two camps. Last Thursday, Falcon shrugged off the BC Conservatives as a non-threat.

“I don’t pay much attention to what they do. They're a fringe party, they’ve been around for a long time,” said Falcon.

Another problem is that time is running out to merge before the next election – and both parties have more than 40 candidates announced, creating a logistical problem if they were to try merging, said Telford.

“I don’t see BC United foregoing any of their MLAs or seeing them run under a Conservative banner,” he said.