The race for control over British Columbia’s legislature tightens

From left to right: B.C. Green leader Sonia Furstenau, B.C. NDP leader David Eby and B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad. (Credit: The Canadian Press/Ethan Cairns, Darryl Dick)

With less than a week until advance voting begins, there is no clear frontrunner, according to a new poll conducted by Research Co.

The online survey found 45 per cent of decided voters say they would vote for the B.C. New Democratic Party candidate in their constituency, while 44 per cent would cast a ballot for the Conservative Party of B.C.

The B.C. Green Party is third with 9 per cent, while 2 per cent of decided voters would vote for other parties or independent candidates.

The race has tightened across the entire province.

The governing NDP are leading the B.C. Conservatives in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. The opposition party is ahead in the Fraser Valley, Southern B.C., and Northern B.C.

The New Democrats are the most popular choice for women and decided voters aged 55 and over.

The B.C. Conservatives are ahead among men and voters between the ages of 18 and 34.

“By a 2-to-1 margin, voters who supported the B.C. Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson in the 2020 provincial election are choosing the B.C. Conservatives (61 per cent) over the B.C. NDP (32 per cent),” said Mario Canseco, President of Research Co.

“The retention rate for the B.C. New Democrats is 72 per cent, while the B.C. Greens are holding on to 47 per cent of their voters from the last provincial ballot,” he added.

Forty per cent of British Columbians say housing, homelessness and poverty is the number one issue facing the province, followed by health care, the economy and jobs, crime and public safety, and the environment.

More than half of likely voters are satisfied with the performance of David Eby, while the numbers are lower for B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad and B.C. Greens leader Sonia Furstenau.

Those surveyed said Rustad was the best leader to handle crime and public safety, while Furstenau remains ahead on the environment.

Eby maintains the upper hand over Rustad on health care, the economy, education, housing, poverty and homelessness, transportation projects, accountability, child care, and seniors care. The two main leaders are practically even on creating jobs, energy, and dealing with municipal governments.

Eby and Rustad are neck and neck on being the best person to manage the province’s finances.

The results are based on an online survey conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, 2024, among a representative sample of 801 likely voters in British Columbia.

The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Election day is Oct. 19 and advance voting starts Oct. 10.