Metro Vancouver drivers expected to see historic price drop at the pumps

A motorist fuels up a vehicle at a Shell gas station in Vancouver on Saturday, October 1, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

Some long overdue relief is coming for Metro Vancouver drivers as gas prices are expected to fall dramatically in the next 24 hours.

Prediction website Gas Wizard is forecasting a drop of about 35 cents per litre by Thursday.

Reports suggest this could mark one of the biggest single-day drops in Canadian history, bringing local prices to 192.9 cents per litre.

“We're in uncharted territory. We've never seen anything like this before, but one thing is pretty clear, fasten your seat belts,” said Dan McTeague, an analyst for Gas Wizard.

For now, drivers are paying about 227.9 per litre, though it is a little cheaper at some stations. The all-time high was set on Sept. 30 and matched again Oct. 7 at 241.9.

Analysts say the historically high prices were due to tight supply as a major pipeline and a refinery on the West Coast underwent maintenance.

Now that those facilities are back online, prices are decreasing.

“Much of what we saw was a combination of an Italian ship coming in filled with gasoline, and the restart of the Ferndale refinery as well as the all clear from the Olympic pipeline. All those factors play into this but of course, so too does the drop in the value of oil,” said McTeague

However, he warns prices could shoot right back up again.

“No one can make any solid longer term predictions more than a couple of hours. It has never been like this before. You could have an interruption unforeseen on the Olympic pipeline or something would happen with Trans Mountain pipeline, and prices could easily jump 20 to 25 cents a litre over a couple of days,” said McTeague.

WHY B.C. DRIVERS PAY MORE

According to a heat map from Gasbuddy.com, Metro Vancouverites continue to pay the highest prices in the country.

In Toronto it was 167.9, in Montreal 173.9, and in Edmonton 169.9 Wednesday.

“The West Coast market and B.C. has sort of the tightest ethanol blending biofuel requirements, making the fuel the cleanest, lowest co2 and grams per grams per liter. So it's the least carbon impact fuel, but unfortunately, that's the most expensive fuel to produce,” said Paul Pasco, principal consultant with Kalibrate.

Premier John Horgan says he’s excited to see prices finally dropping.

“If we can see a drop of that much overnight. It's not because of government policy, it's because of the volatility in the market,” said Horgan.

He’s adamant that taxation is not the issue.

“These are internationally traded commodities and government has very little control over the final price and the taxes that are put into a litre of gas, go towards our transit system and go towards building new bridges filling holes in our roadways,” said Horgan.

However, he sympathized with drivers.

“I know that people would like to see their prices come down. That's why we brought forward a bunch of measures to put money back into people's pockets to help us get through this inflationary storm that we're experiencing not just here in B.C., but around the world,” said the premier.

Pasco agrees that there’s not a lot the government can do to stabilize the market.

“We're supposed to be a carbon neutral future and the phasing out of hydrocarbons is a fuel. So there is no motivation for the refiners to add substantial refining capacity this time as all demand forecasts show that we should see it start to fall,” he said.

Analysts predict prices could drop a further five to 10 cents a litre by the weekend.