Impact of Delta variant: Number of COVID-19 cases doubling every 7-10 days in B.C.
The number of COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant is doubling every seven to 10 days in British Columbia, experts say.
Prof. Sarah Otto of the University of British Columbia said the variant, which first became prominent in India, is displacing the one that originated in the United Kingdom.
“Delta is now the most common variant in the province, with its frequency doubling every week relative to Alpha,” said Otto, who is an expert in the university's zoology department on the mathematical models of pandemic growth and evolution.
“The Delta variant increases the viral load by about one-thousand-fold, making it much easier to catch and transmit.”
COVID-19 cases in B.C. continued their upward march as the province reported more than 700 infections Tuesday over a four-day period, with more than half of those in the Interior where the vaccination rate is lower.
Paul Tupper, a mathematics professor from Simon Fraser University, said the Delta variant is a “large part” of the reason for the increase in COVID-19 case numbers.
The relaxing of restrictions and reopening of the economy have also contributed to the growth, he said.
If the Alpha variant infects two people on an average, the Delta infects three, he said.
“And that's bad news.”
The good news is that areas with higher vaccination rates are showing fewer infections even among the Delta variant, he said.
The Vancouver Coastal region has a vaccination rate of about 80 per cent while it is 65 per cent for the Interior and that is reflected in COVID-19 case numbers, Tupper said.
Dean Karlen, a physics professor at the University of Victoria, said the emergence of the Delta variant is stronger than scientists expected, and Canada's next wave has the potential to be similar to what is happening in the United States if no special measures such as mask mandates are reintroduced.
“But right now, in Alberta and British Columbia, it's very clear that Delta is starting to play a big role,” he said.
The exact trajectory and intensity of growth will become clearer as more data comes in over the next few weeks, he said.
Otto said B.C. is beginning a fourth wave of COVID-19 infections, but how high it will get and how fast it will rise depends on everybody's behaviour.
The two things people can do to prevent the wave from getting “very high” is get vaccinated and avoid indoor crowded spaces without a mask, she said.
The province and the country will continue seeing such waves as new, more transmissible variants arise, but Otto noted that “vaccinations are really protecting people from the worst ravages of this disease.”
Caroline Colijn, a mathematics professor at Simon Fraser University, said most of the infections are likely to be among the unvaccinated population.
“And they of course have the same risk of hospitalization they always did or maybe more with Delta because it may be more severe and higher viral loads,” she said.
While the vaccines are about 90 per cent effective against the virus, Tupper said there will still be some people who get sick and transmit to others.
A higher degree of immunity can be achieved by vaccinating children under 12, he said.
Health Canada has not yet approved a vaccine for children under 12.
“Children when immunized can contribute to herd immunity, and that makes other people that they're with safer,” he said.
It “definitely makes sense” to have some restrictions until a higher vaccination rate is reached, Tupper said.
“So, anything that buys us time, that allows us to have fewer infections before we get our vaccination numbers high, that makes sense.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 4, 2021.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Most of Canada to receive emergency alert test today
The federal government will test its capacity to issue emergency alerts today, with the exception of Ontario, where the test will take place on May 15.
OPINION What King Charles' schedule being too 'full' to accommodate son suggests about relationship with Prince Harry
Prince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, has made headlines with his recent arrival in the U.K., this time to celebrate all things Invictus. But upon the prince landing in the U.K., we have already had confirmation that King Charles III won't have time to see his youngest son during his brief visit.
Ontario man devastated to learn $150,000 line of credit isn't insured after wife dies
An Ontario man found out that a line of credit he thought was insured actually isn't after his wife of 50 years died.
Boy Scouts of America is rebranding. Here's why they're now named Scouting America
After more than a century, Boy Scouts of America is rebranding as Scouting America, another major shakeup for an organization that once proudly resisted change.
New Canadian study could be a lifesaver for thousands suffering from CTE
A first-of-its-kind Canadian research study is working towards a major medical breakthrough for a brain disorder, believed to be caused by repeated head injuries, that can only be detected after death.
Rape, terror and death at sea: How a boat carrying Rohingya children, women and men capsized
In March, Indonesian officials and local fishermen rescued 75 people from the overturned hull of a boat off the coast of Indonesia. Until now, little was known about why the boat capsized.
Stormy Daniels describes meeting Trump during occasionally graphic testimony in hush money trial
With Donald Trump sitting just feet away, Stormy Daniels testified Tuesday at the former president's hush money trial about a sexual encounter the porn actor says they had in 2006 that resulted in her being paid to keep silent during the presidential race 10 years later.
These adults born in the '90s partnered with their parents to buy homes in Ontario
An Ontario woman said it would have been impossible to buy a house without her mother – an anecdote that animates the fact that over 17 per cent of Canadian homeowners born in the ‘90s own their property with their parents, according to a new report.
For their protection, immigrants critical of China and India call for speedy passage of Canada's foreign interference legislation
Canadian immigrants threatened by hostile regimes are urging parliamentarians to quickly pass the 'Countering Foreign Interference Act' so they can feel safe living in their adopted home.