An annual forecast of Canada's food prices predicts B.C. residents will be among the hardest hit by increases in the grocery store aisles.
The report was released by Dalhousie University on Monday and compiled by researchers including lead author Sylvan Charlebois from the school's faculty of management and agriculture
Charlebois' research suggests that Canadians coast to coast can expect to pay between three and five per cent more for food in 2017.
Typically, the impact of the rate of inflation on food prices is between one and two per cent, but this year's higher-than-usual forecast is largely blamed on the impact of the falling Loonie on a country that imports a significant amount of food.
Overall, Canadians can expect to pay an additional $420 per family, but some parts of the country are expected to be hit harder than others. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to see "higher than average" increases, the report says.
Those provinces will see the largest increases due to "the level of competitiveness in food retailing and the state of the overall economy."
Lower prices are expected in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Quebec, Manitoba and Alberta, because of weaker provincial economies or more competitive distribution.
The report also looked at what Canadians will spend the most on. Prices are expected to increase between four and six per cent for meats, vegetables, fish and seafood and "other food items."
Pork in particular is expected to increase in price, and a forecasted demand means there is potential for beef prices to rise as well.
Dairy, eggs, bakery products and cereals will increase up to two per cent, while fruits and nuts may increase up to five per cent, the report suggests.
Prices on restaurant menus are also expected to rise by as much as four per cent in 2017, an increase Charlebois blames on less regulatory pressure coming from the U.S.
The seventh annual report – which takes into account climate, household income, fuel prices, grocery store expansions and global agricultural production from 1999 to 2016 – also considered what it called "The Trump Effect," which authors say could increase prices further over the next few years.
"His campaign and rhetoric on immigration, trade and security could influence food prices on both sides of the border," page nine of the report says.
With U.S. agriculture officials estimating there are two million illegal workers helping the industry through the year and during harvest, a crackdown on illegal immigration could push prices higher.
Charlebois spoke to CTV News last month in detail about how Donald Trump's presidency could affect food prices in Canada.
While the report is a forecast, and other factors may influence the prices in grocery store aisles, the last five out of six reports written by Charlebois' team have been accurate at least part of the year.
Last year's forecast was an increase of between two and four per cent, with the highest increases in the cost of fruit and nuts and meat. The actual overall increase in the first 10 months of 2016 was 2.5 per cent, with the steepest markups on vegetables and seafood.
The 2017 forecast explains the difference as being due to higher-than-expected inventories and more pressure from distributers. As a result, grocery store chains took "aggressive discounting measures" and consumers saw price reductions in the fall.
The report's summary of 2016 also noted that there was a steep increase in food bank usage across Canada, with more than 300,000 children and 550,000 adults using their services across the country. The increases were highest in Alberta and Nova Scotia.
Many of those were forced to choose between high housing costs and food, an increasing problem across Canada, the report said.
