Donald Trump's pending presidency could be bad news for grocery shoppers on both sides of the border, according to an expert in food distribution and policy.
Over the summer, consumers across Canada saw food prices dip for the first time in years, but Dalhousie University professor Sylvain Charlebois believes Trump's election likely means that relief will be short-lived.
"We were expecting food deflation to continue for quite some time," Charlebois said. "But as a result of some of the things we're seeing out of the U.S., we could actually end food deflation and go back into inflation again by the time we get to BBQ season."
One factor is whether Trump makes good on his campaign pledge, which was re-iterated in a 60 Minutes interview over the weekend, to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.
A mass deportation would create huge problems for the farmers who rely on migrant labourers, likely causing an increase in harvesting costs that would be passed on to consumers, according to the professor. That would mean trouble for Canada as well, since 80 per cent of our fruits and vegetables are imported.
"What was not underscored during the election is the number of illegal workers supporting agriculture in the U.S., and that is over two million people," Charlebois said. "If over the next six months Mr. Trump tries to get rid of all these people, there will be a lot of farmers looking labour, or who won't have access to any labour at all."
Immigrants fill rural jobs that many Americans simply don’t want, Charlebois added, much the same way they do in Canada's agricultural sector.
Another potential factor in Canadian food prices is Trump's announced plan to cap business taxes at 15 per cent, which could also prompt local food processors to close or relocate.
And as prices go up, it's possible the Canadian dollar will be going down. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it intends to hike interest rates in December, a move Charlebois said could widen the gap between our currencies.
"We could see the greenback go up and the Canadian Loonie go down again, which would actually impact our buying power. And so everything we import, no matter where it comes from, it could cost more," he said.
Fortunately, there are some things savvy consumers can do to protect their pocketbooks. Charlebois recommends shoppers do research, use apps and generally keep track of how much they normally pay for individual items to save money on their grocery bills.
A clearer picture of where food prices are going is expected next month, when the annual Food Retail Price Report, of which Charlebois is lead author, is released.
With a report from CTV Vancouver's Jonathan Glasgow
