Some provinces loosening COVID-19 health restrictions, but is endemic near?

B.C.’s top doctor has hinted COVID-19 restrictions could be eased in time for Family Day, and some other provinces have already relaxed measures or announced plans to do so soon.

Given those developments, some may naturally believe the pandemic will soon be over, with the virus becoming endemic.

Experts disagree.

“So the reality is that political endemicity is going to come very, very quickly. Actual scientific endemic, it's going to take a while,” said Jason Tetro, a microbiologist and host of the Super Awesome Science Show podcast.

Tetro suggested lifting restrictions now, while transmission remains high, suggests politics are trumping science.

For B.C. to reach a proper endemic, he said, there would be two new cases for every 100,000 people, or roughly 100 cases a day.

Instead, what we are seeing is waves.

“So before you start opening up anything, you should be essentially waiting for the numbers to come down, to plateau, to stay there for 21 days, and then you can start lifting restrictions,” he said, adding that after 28 days, “you can probably lift all the restrictions right away.”

Tetro is based in Edmonton, and thinks his province is moving too quickly, by getting rid of its vaccine passport program and, in the coming days, lifting its mask mandate.

Meanwhile, B.C. Premier John Horgan has remained steadfast that officials will wait for direction from its public health office.

Tetro suspects capacity limits will be lifted first, then when case numbers dip further, the indoor mask mandate will be gone.

“When we’ve reached that point, hopefully by then we'll have had enough people vaccinated that vaccine passports will no longer be necessary,” he said.

Sally Otto, a member of the independent B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group, said the province’s slower approach is wise given we are still riding out the fifth wave.

“We're still seeing rising numbers of deaths and hospitalizations at or near their peak. So let's wait just a little longer before we open up,” she said.

Otto argued it’s also important for officials to consider improving ventilation standards in buildings, as well as access to masks and rapid antigen tests.

“The virus evolved so much that it was basically evading immunity, so we know that this is going on and we should expect it into the future. And that's really what we have to start thinking about as a society, is in that future, where we will see wave after wave of variants, how can we protect ourselves better?”

When COVID-19 does become endemic, experts note that won’t mean the disease has been eradicated, just that it’s stabilized and society has learned to live with it.

“(Endemic) is a word that signals to people a kind of a calming notion that this is something that's becoming more routine. And I do think with the COVID-19 we have with us today, there's reason to think that it is becoming more routine,” said Peter Berman, a health economist with the UBC School of Population and Public Health.

“What is still of concern is that a very large percentage of the world's population is not yet vaccinated or protected. And there are plenty of reasons to be concerned that the disease might continue to evolve in the future.”

But he said if people continue to take personal measures, such as getting vaccinated and isolating when sick, then the impacts of the disease will likely be less severe.

Experts said a COVID-19 endemic would be treated much like the flu, where people stay home when sick and vaccines are generally not mandated.