VANCOUVER – With days to go until the 2019 federal election, the party of Andrew Scheer continues to garner the most support among British Columbians.
That's according to the latest poll from Insights West, which also saw Jagmeet Sing's NDP enjoying a last-minute surge in popularity out west.
The online poll, which was conducted from Oct. 13-16, asked B.C. adults which party's candidate they would vote for "if the federal election were held today."
Twenty-three per cent said they would cast a ballot for the NDP – a major jump over the previous two polls from Insights West, which pegged support for the party at just 14 per cent. Pollsters said the newfound strength was largely thanks to women, young voters and people living in the coastal areas of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island.
"Our latest poll results are welcome news for the NDP and Jagmeet Singh, but before anyone breaks out the champagne, the key in this election as it has been in several in recent memory across Canada is voter turnout," Insights West president Steve Mossop said in a news release.
"More often than their older cohorts, young voters have a tendency to stay home come election day. As the advance polls have already suggested, Conservative voter turnout is something that party can bank on much more so than any other party."
British Columbians' support for the Conservatives dipped slightly to 27 per cent, though the party maintains a comfortable lead over Justin Trudeau's Liberals. One-in-five respondents said they would vote for their local Liberal candidate, up slightly from the 19 per cent recorded in the last poll conducted in late September.
Respondents who said they would be voting Conservative were more likely to express confidence in their choice as well. Almost 80 per cent said they were absolutely certain they will cast their ballot for a Tory candidate.
Fewer than two-thirds of NDP and Liberal supporters had the same level of confidence.
The poll also found British Columbians' support for the Greens dipped to 11 per cent from 14, and that the number of still-undecided voters fell to 10 per cent from 15.
Insights West also tried to shed light on what's driving people to make their choices. Pollsters found about a third of Liberal voters picked the party because they "really don't want another party to win," and only 16 per cent said they were doing so because they support Trudeau.
Scheer didn't fare much better, with only 21 per cent of Conservative voters basing their decision on support for the party leader. One-quarter said they were hoping to block another party from forming government.
By contrast, 39 per cent of NDP voters said they were voting New Democrat because they support Singh, and only 10 per cent were doing so to stop another party from winning.
Insights West's survey was conducted from Oct. 13-16 among a representative sample of 1,670 B.C. adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
