B.C. officials watching U.S. rating system for atmospheric rivers after federal delay

British Columbia’s deputy premier appears to be quietly using an American system for rating the severity of atmospheric rivers in the absence of a much-anticipated Canadian system. 

When addressing reporters at the legislature Thursday morning, Mike Farnworth, who also serves as minister of public safety, was defensive about the absence of a public notification system, like those used to rank hurricane severity, nearly a year after the province was hit with catastrophic flooding from atmospheric rivers. 

“The province was not coming out with a ranking system,” he told reporters. “It was the federal government that we understood would be coming out with a ranking system and my understanding is that that work is continuing,” 

He then went on to say that the rainfall the South Coast is expecting is typical for this time of year and referenced the scale used by the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography to explain duration and severity of atmospheric rivers.

”This (atmospheric river today) is what's classed as a 2, the one last year was classed as a 4,” said Farnworth, revealing that he was familiar with the scale and aware of the latest forecasting by the Scripps Institution.

It’s unclear how widespread use of the scale is in government agencies preparing for and responding to extreme weather events.

CRITICISM AND A PLEA TO AVOID ALARM

CTV News asked Emergency Management BC whether the agency is essentially using the U.S. system in severe weather preparations behind the scenes in the wake of Environment Canada foot-dragging. EMBC did not answer directly, instead writing in an email: “The Weather Network has been using the U.S. ranking system in its recent forecasting, which is what Minister Farnworth was referring to.”

But the opposition public safety critic pointed out there’s nothing preventing the province from publicly adopting the American system until Environment Canada catches up, in the interests of avoiding the alarm that can come with the phrase “atmospheric river,” now that it’s associated with last year’s flooding devastation.

“It's a track record for this government to always blame some other agency for being responsible and they're abrogating their responsibilities and leadership that's necessary in the province,” said Mike Morris. “I think it's incumbent upon the minister to ensure there's some sort of rating system in place so that people know 'Do I have to prepare, do I have to go to high ground? What do I need to do?'"

That statement echoes the advice given last year by one of the programmers a the Scripps Institution.

“We don't want the public, just because they see ‘atmospheric river,' (to start) panicking because the majority of them are beneficial,” said Brian Kawzenuk last November. “We need to let them know when the big ones are coming, these are the ones that you need to be aware of and worry about."

ENVIRONMENT CANADA QUIET ON DEVELOPMENT

Atmospheric rivers are described by scientists as “rivers in the sky” that travel across huge areas like the Pacific Ocean and bring concentrated bands of moisture to the upper atmosphere that falls as heavy, intense rain on the earth below. 

The Scripps Institution established a 1-5 ranking system, with 1 termed “primarily beneficial” rainfall and 5 being widespread and exceptional and “primarily hazardous.” Their forecasters expect Thursday’s atmospheric river hitting southeast British Columbia and Washington state to be a level 1, with the second one over the weekend likely being a stronger level-2 event.

B.C. was supposed to have access to a system developed by Environment Canada by January, but it’s not clear if that deadline was met or if they’ve made any progress at all.

“I don't have a status update for you right now,” meteorologist and spokesperson Alyssa Charbonneau told CTV News. “It is something that Environment Canada scientists are studying.”

After coming under intense criticism during last year’s fatal flooding for rejecting the use of the AlertReady emergency text notification system for anything other than tsunamis, the province has now expanded the use of the system to natural disasters and Amber Alerts.