Atmospheric river ranking system still not implemented in B.C.

VANCOUVER -

Months after atmospheric rivers triggered a catastrophic series of landslides and floods, there seems to have been little progress in implementing a ranking system for the weather events despite a timeline set out by the public safety minister.

In November, when he was asked about a one to five categorization system developed by American researchers, Mike Farnworth seemed keen on the idea. 

"We are very pleased that the federal government is putting in place, is working with Environment Canada, a ranking system for the atmospheric rivers. That will assist, I think, us greatly in getting an understanding of exactly what the nature of an atmospheric river is," Farnworht said during a Nov. 22 news conference.

"It is, obviously, a new term that I think most of us are now becoming familiar with. They have a ranking system in the states. That will allow us to, I think, prepare more effectively. My expectation is, from what I've been told, that will be coming, looking to be implemented at the beginning of January 2022."

But when CTV News asked about the implementation as another series of atmospheric rivers was barrelling toward B.C., the public safety ministry directed us to Environment and Climate Change Canada, citing a new, vague timeline of having a system sometime “in the future.” 

The meteorological agency said they have their own internal colour-coded forecasting tool, but described it as having limitations and being a work in progress. A meteorologist said they send their predictions to provincial officials, but an EMBC communications officer said they had not received a ranking on Monday afternoon.

AMERICAN RESEARCHERS ANTICIPATE LEVEL 3 EVENT

While a warning preparedness meteorologist with ECCC described the scale as “not quite ready” for public distribution, American researchers specializing in atmospheric rivers published an analysis and prediction for a Level 3 event.

“Flooding is possible in western Washington and southwestern B.C. due to the combination of heavy rainfall, moist soils, and existing snowpack at lower elevations,” wrote analysts at the Centre for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institute at UC San Diego. 

While no government agencies have officially adopted the Scripps Institute’s scale, it’s already being cited and used as reference by meteorologist and planners who follow their forecasts and projections.

Much like a tornado or hurricane ranking system, the analysts say the forecast can change while providing a quick and easy to understand snapshot of the conditions for the general public.

ECCC said they’re working on several measures to better communicate weather events and risks to the public as part of years-long planning and development work.

WHAT ABOUT ALERT READY?

Another issue that saw the province in the hot seat during November’s lethal flooding and slides was the reluctance of emergency officials to use the Alert Ready system, which had a narrow set of parameters for its implementation amid confusion over how the emergency text alert technology works.

Less than two weeks after the flooding, the B.C. RCMP used the Alert Ready system during an active shooter situation in Prince George, marking the first time Alert Ready had been used in B.C. in four years, while other provinces use the technology dozens of times per year. 

When CTV News asked whether Emergency Management B.C. was willing to trigger Alert Ready texts if the weather called for it, and they said they are.

“Should a community, or communities, feel there is an imminent threat to life or public safety, the Province stands ready to use the Alert Ready program and issue what we call a broadcast intrusive alert,” they wrote in an email. “Emergency Management B.C. reviews every significant event and will review these events and the lessons we need to learn to be better prepared for emergencies.”