B.C. COVID-19 numbers largely unchanged in latest update

A sign at the entrance to Surrey Memorial Hospital is seen on Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022. (CTV)

After a notable increase at the end of September, the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 in B.C. has remained relatively flat over the last three weeks. 

There were 365 test-positive patients in hospital as of Thursday, down four from the previous week and two from the week before that, but still 60 more than were hospitalized as of Sept. 22.

This graph shows the number of test-positive COVID-19 patients in B.C. hospitals on Thursdays since the province switched to a "hospital census" model in January. (CTV)

Notably, the number of patients in critical care fell significantly this week, dropping from 29 to 19, which ties the lowest total B.C. has seen all year.

The hospital populations released each week by the B.C. Centre for Disease Control reflect a "hospital census" approach that includes both those with serious cases of COVID-19 requiring hospitalization and those who are in hospital for other reasons and test positive incidentally.

Provincial officials have said between 40 and 50 per cent of people included in the weekly hospitalization total are typically there because of COVID, while the rest are in the incidental category.

Since the province began tracking hospitalizations in this way in January, there have been as many as 985 test-positive patients in hospital and as few as 255.

CASES AND WASTEWATER

Like the hospital census, the number of new coronavirus cases reported this week was essentially unchanged from the previous one.

The BCCDC said 697 people tested positive for COVID-19 in lab-based tests during the week of Oct. 2 to 8. Last week, it reported the same number of positive tests for the week of Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, though that week's total has been revised down to 696 in the latest report.

Official case counts include only the results of lab-based tests. The BCCDC does not track the results of at-home, rapid antigen tests, which are the only type of test available to most B.C. residents with symptoms.

The independent B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group has estimated that official case counts are off by 100-fold, relative to the actual number of new infections the province is seeing each week. 

If that estimate is correct, then there were approximately 69,700 new cases in B.C. during the week that ended Oct. 8, or just under 10,000 new infections per day.

One metric that can help quantify the trend in cases not captured by the official count is wastewater surveillance.

According to the BCCDC's latest situation report, four of the five wastewater treatment plants in Metro Vancouver have seen increases in viral concentrations over the last few weeks. 

Most of these increases have been small, however, and the two plants that have seen the most significant jumps are also the two that the BCCDC flags as having more variable viral loads than others. 

'FALL SURGE' COMING?

For months, B.C. health officials have been warning of the possibility of a "fall surge" in COVID-19 cases, as well as cases of influenza and other respiratory illnesses.

Late last month, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix outlined their plans to free up hundreds of hospital beds by moving current patients whose care needs are suitable for smaller facilities into community clinics and long-term care homes. 

That proposal was met with skepticism from the BC Care Providers Association, which suggested the goal may not be attainable given the staff shortages plaguing the health-care system. 

While the numbers released Thursday do not point to an ongoing "fall surge," it's also notable that "fall" hasn't yet begun in much of the province, at least in terms of the weather.

Vancouver Island, the Lower Mainland, the Sunshine Coast and the Southern Interior have all seen warmer, dryer weather than is typical for this time of year.

Part of the reason Henry has said she expects a fall surge is that cooler, wetter weather tends to lead people to gather indoors, where coronavirus transmission is easier.

VACCINATION DATA

In hopes of mitigating the effects of a fall surge, Henry and Dix encouraged B.C. residents to get vaccinated against both COVID-19 and influenza.

According to the BCCDC's COVID-19 dashboard, the province administered 152,758 new doses of vaccine during the week of Oct. 2 through 8, nearly all of them the bivalent vaccine that targets the Omicron variants of the coronavirus.

Data from the dashboard indicates that 131,861 – or roughly 86 per cent – of the doses administered during the week were considered fourth doses, meaning they were administered to people who got a booster dose before the bivalent vaccines became available.