In the final week of the election campaign, you can pick up signals by watching where the leaders go.

Liberal leader Stephan Dion spent time this week with candidate Briony Penn, a political newcomer who could very well topple a sitting cabinet minister. She says Dion likely wouldn't be in the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding unless she had a good shot.

"I think thats a pretty clear indication that we've got a very good chance of unseating a cabinet minister,'' Penn said.

For 11 years, Saanich-Gulf Islands has been Gary Lunns riding. And at least outwardly, the Conservative Party Natural Resources Minister is not worried about losing this time.

Lunn is quick to point out that Penn is running on a platform of bringing in a second carbon tax in British Columbia.

"That's not what British Columbians want, that's not what the residents of Saanich-Gulf Islands want,'' said Lunn.

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From populous Sidney to the southern islands like Saltspring, Saanich-Gulf Islands is a large rural-urban riding that is home to Canada's second highest number of senior citizens.

In the last election, Lunn won by nearly 7,000 votes.

That seems insurmountable. But he won with about a third of the ballots, when votes split in three different directions.

This time, things are much different. The NDP candidate, Julian West, dropped out of the race after admitting a past indiscretion. That means this race is a dogfight between Lunn and Penn.

Winning in this riding will depend on who can attract NDP voters. The liberals believe they have the best chance of attracting left-of-centre voters and the Conservatives admit it's an uphill battle.

"For the Liberals to think that all of a sudden they get all of the NDP votes, that's classic Liberal arrogance,'' said Lunn

But Penn said she is taking nothing for granted.

"I was asked by the Greens, the NDP and the Liberals. all three parties to run, and I just thought you know what, that's what people want,'' she said. "They don't really care about partisan politics, they just want a progressive voice in parliament

But exactly whose voice that will be won't be known until next week.

With a report by CTV British Columbia's Jim Beatty.