Ranking of which world cities will be underwater first puts Vancouver in the top 20

A ranking based on population and elevation puts Vancouver in the top 20 when it comes to cities that will be submerged as ocean levels rise.

The ranking of coastal cities was built based on a "conservative estimate" of a rise of up to 1.5 metres, though those behind the project say other predictions suggest sea levels will rise as much as 2.5 metres by 2100, barring intervention.

The estimate of 1.5 metres assumes an increase in global temperatures of 3.5 C, according to an infographic posted earlier this week.

The list of 36 cities was compiled by insurance provider the Swiftest, using a coastal risk screening tool by Climate Central, an organization of scientists and journalists who research and report effects of and solutions to climate change.

The work does not appear to be peer reviewed.

It places Vancouver in the 19th spot, though those behind the research said they only looked at cities considered among the world's most visited.

A city's placement on the list is based on population size, not a city's actual elevation in relation to the others, though that's how it was determined which cities would be affected first.

According to the mapping, much of Vancouver's coastline will be submerged, and destinations including Granville Island and the Museum of Vancouver will be underwater at some point, should levels reach the estimated 1.5-metre increase.

In Richmond, Steveston Harbour and the Vancouver International Airport would also be underwater, based on the data.

The other cities on the list include Tokyo, which is in the top spot due to its significantly higher population than Vancouver's.

Also in the top are Mumbai, New York City, Osaka, Istanbul, Kolkata, Bangkok, Jakarta, London and Dhaka. The full list can be viewed in the infographic below.

The Swiftest also ranked top tourist destinations, a list which includes St. Mark's Basilica in Venice and Miami Beach in Florida.

The site says an estimated 10 per cent of the world's population lives on the coastline, a statistic it attributes to the United Nation.

"Coastal erosion is a major threat without even factoring in the increased natural disaster impacts like hurricanes or king tides… While some cities are proactively working on coastal management, others are struggling to commit to a plan, like Bangkok," those behind the ranking wrote.

They cited an article published in 2019 in the Bangkok Post, which references research suggesting much of the area could be underwater as early as 2050. This article too mentions Climate Central data.

In Vancouver, actions are being taken to address climate change.

The city published a report called Vancouver's Changing Shoreline in 2018 about the impacts and how its preparing for a rise in sea level.

That report included maps that highlighted the city's coastal floodplain, and suggested that Stanley Park, False Creek and other areas could be flooded by 2100.

There were five models released in the city's Coastal Flood Risk Assessment report of what flooding could look like. The data suggested between 1,700 and 4,800 households would be displaced, and between 5,000 and 14,300 people would need shelter.

That year, the city estimated the cost of the infrastructure required to protect sections of coastline would reach $1 billion by 2100. 

An assessment from B.C.'s Ministry of Environment 10 years ago suggested the sea level would rise by 0.5 metres by 2040, and by a full metre by 2100.

(Infographic from TheSwiftest.com)