Members of Premier Gordon Campbell's government planning to run for his job face daunting -- but not impossible -- odds of winning, political strategists and pundits said Thursday.
Candidates from outside Campbell's current three-term government will enjoy immediate, favoured status solely because they are not connected to the decision to introduce and support the hated harmonized sales tax.
Campbell announced Wednesday he is stepping down and called on the BC Liberals to elect a new leader as soon as possible,
So far, nobody has officially entered the race.
Campbell cabinet ministers Kevin Falcon, George Abbott, Mike de Jong and Rich Coleman are considered likely candidates.
Surrey mayor Dianne Watts is being touted as a solid candidate from outside the current Liberal fold.
Former Liberal cabinet minister Blair Lekstrom, who quit cabinet and caucus over the HST, is considering running on the strength of his HST decision and his populist sentiments.
Veteran B.C. backroom political strategist Brad Zubyk said the HST will be a major issue in the leadership campaign, but it's up to savvy and experienced politicians like Abbott, Coleman, Falcon and de Jong to distance themselves from the unpopular tax, even though they supported its introduction.
Education Minister Abbott, who said the HST has been the toughest political issue he's faced in 30 years in public life, said he is considering a run at the Liberal leadership.
"We have an opportunity here to present a rebranded face to the electorate in British Columbia and I think it's important that we do that," Abbott said at a Liberal caucus meeting in Vancouver on Thursday.
He joked that the new Liberal leader should be able to walk on water, "but, seriously though, I think what we need for the future is a leadership style which is collegial, which builds on the many talents that we have in caucus and cabinet."
Abbott said he wants to see the HST debate become more technical and less emotional.
Attorney General de Jong joked about entering the leadership race, saying his decision still involves a double scotch and lots of prayer.
He said his immediate concerns are ensuring the government continues to function smoothly.
"We are in the process now of selecting a new leader but government continues and people have a right to expect a seamless transition and in the midst of that transition, the business of government and building a strong economy will continue," de Jong said.
Campbell said he decided to quit after realizing his decline in popularity was overshadowing the necessary work of the government.
His personal opinion rating had dipped to the single digits and a recent cabinet shuffle and 15-per-cent income tax cut did nothing to increase his popularity.
Zubyk said he expects the leadership candidates will promise to move up the September 2011 date for the referendum to repeal the HST as a way to distance themselves from the tax.
"All they have to do is come out and say 'Thirty days after I'm sworn in, we'll have the referendum,"' he said.
"The Opposition's even saying let's move the referendum up. They're not saying let's not have a referendum."
Outside contenders like Lekstrom and Watts have the advantage of not being tied to the HST, but it's up to the Campbell cabinet ministers to level the playing field, Zubyk said.
"It's tricky, but it's possible," he said. "You have to run against the existing government while not totally repudiating everything they've done. You have to say 'We know you're angry at the status quo, but let me tell you that I'm different.' It's positioning."
Zubyk said if Lekstrom enters the race, he becomes a unique candidate because he was able to distance himself from Campbell on the HST.
But that doesn't make the Peace River politician a complete package.
"It makes him intriguing, but there's a bunch of other factors, like, can you raise money?" said Zubyk.
University of Victoria political scientist Dennis Pilon said leadership candidates who served in the Campbell government must promise to scrap the HST entirely in order to have any chance of replacing Campbell as premier.
"If anyone's going to come from the backbenches or caucus or cabinet, they're going to have to do something decisive when they take the leadership, and I think the most decisive thing would be to can the HST," he said.
The outsiders hold an enormous advantage because they can say they were not responsible for the HST and did not buy into Campbell's "one-man government."