A report prepared in January by the federal Immigration Department warned of a "perfect storm" of circumstances that could prompt more Tamil migrants to board ships bound for Canada, months before the arrival of the MV Sun Sea prompted the Conservative government to promise changes to crack down on such vessels.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has cited the Sun Sea's arrival last month as he pushes for tougher legislation to prevent more ships from repeating the voyage, and the federal cabinet has been discussing what those changes might be.
But a planning document prepared by diplomatic staff in the Sri Lankan capital of Colombo, obtained by Vancouver immigration lawyer Richard Kurland under access to information laws, sounded the alarm seven months earlier.
The report notes the end of the civil war last year saw more than 100,000 Tamils released from refugee camps in Sri Lanka, where economic and social issues stemming from the conflict persist. It also says Canada has a large, relatively wealthy Tamil population.
"Some have called this a perfect storm as overseas friends, family and relatives appear willing to fund irregular migration operations," says the report, dated Jan. 13, 2010.
"As Canada has over 250,000 former Sri Lankan nationals living in the country, Canada will be a target destination."
The document points to the MV Ocean Lady, which landed in B.C. last year carrying 76 Tamils from Sri Lanka, as well as a recent clampdown of such operations by Australia, a popular destination for Tamil migrants in the past.
"There remains significant concern that the successful arrival of this group (aboard the Ocean Lady) will encourage other vessels to be organized," says the report.
"In the 2009 calendar year, the Australians are expected to receive over 90 vessels carrying over 2,000 irregular migrants, and as the Australian removal program of these migrants increases, Canada may present an attractive option, despite higher smuggling costs and risk."
Kurland, who isn't involved in any of the migrants' cases and frequently files access to information requests for Immigration Department documents, said he wants to know whether the federal government did anything to respond to the warnings.
"When the front-line guys say, 'Put extra pads on the goalie, we're about to receive a few shots,' someone has to make the executive decision to do it or not do it," Kurland said in an interview Monday.
"I'd be fascinated by any explanation of what the government did when it received the head's up of a perfect storm."
Kurland said he would be concerned if the federal government waited until the Sun Sea sailed into the headlines in August before it began considering changes.
"It's as if someone wanted to create a sense of panic and urgency to slide through new policy," he said.
A spokesman for Public Safety Minister Vic Toews, who first raised the possibility of new laws to deter migrant ships, wouldn't say whether the government did anything to respond to the report's warnings.
"The reason we believe that we are increasingly becoming the target of human smuggling is specifically because the government has been receiving intelligence and working on this file for many months," Christopher McCluskey wrote in an email.
"Beyond that, we cannot comment on operational security matters."
Officials with the Canada Border Services Agency and Citizen and Immigration Canada were unavailable.
Meanwhile, Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said Monday that the federal government doesn't plan on overriding the Charter of Rights and Freedoms to strip migrants of some rights while authorities deal with their refugee claims.
He said options being considered by cabinet are within the confines of the current laws, which extend the full range of Charter rights and protections to foreigners anywhere in Canadian territory, regardless of who they are, or how they got here.
Kenney has already said he will dispatch a former director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service to Asia to improve co-operation and information-sharing with authorities there.
