B.C.'s Omicron count climbs to 44 as modelling predicts possible holiday season spike

The number of Omicron cases confirmed in B.C. has more than quadrupled, as new modelling predicts the variant could trigger a rapid increase in transmission this holiday season.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry announced Tuesday that 44 Omicron infections have been identified through whole genome sequencing, and that additional confirmations are pending.

"There will be more cases," Henry said. "It is important to know that we have transmission in the community now."

The previous Omicron total, provided by the government Friday afternoon, was 10.

More than half of the Omicron cases have come from the Fraser Health region, which spans from Burnaby to Boston Bar, but the concerning new variant has popped up in every health authority across the province.

Officials said the infected range in age from five to 72, with a median age of 33, and most have no recent travel history. The 20 who have recently travelled went to countries such as Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, Germany, Portugal and the U.S.

None of the cases have resulted in hospitalization, something Henry credited to the generally young age of people getting infected, and the fact that all but seven have been vaccinated.

"We have so far seen very mild illness in most people, although it is not innocuous," she added. "There are some young people who are getting quite sick with this – not sick enough to need hospitalization, but it certainly is a serious illness."

Two children under the age of 11 are among the unvaccinated cases, officials said .

The increase in Omicron cases comes after B.C.'s COVID-19 reproductive rate surged back above 1.0, meaning that each new infection is spread to just over one additional person, on average.

Henry called the increase, much of which has been linked to higher transmission on Vancouver Island, a concerning development that could reflect more group transmission linked to gatherings.

Health officials on Vancouver Island are grappling with an outbreak at the University of Victoria connected to off-campus house parties last week, which led to more than 120 students getting sick. Four Omicron cases have been associated with UVic students so far, and Henry said more confirmed cases are expected.

Henry pointed to emerging evidence that Omicron's mutations make it more transmissible than Delta, but noted it remains unclear just how easily it spreads. Researchers are also still working to determine whether it causes more severe illness or more breakthrough infections.

Data from South Africa suggests the variant is more likely to re-infect people who previously caught COVID-19, particularly earlier iterations of the virus.

"If you've had a previous infection, you still need to be vaccinated. Vaccination protects against this re-infection that we're seeing more commonly with Omicron," Henry said.

New modelling predicts a number of potential transmission scenarios as the new Omicron variant spreads in B.C.

Given those unknown variables, B.C.'s latest COVID-19 modelling includes several different scenarios assuming different characteristics of the Omicron variant. Under a worst-case scenario in which Omicron transmits 1.5 to three times more than Delta with increased immune evasion, B.C. could see cases explode to 2,000 per day by the end of the month, while hospitalizations could be near the province's previous daily maximum by early January.

Henry stressed that the modelling is based on "a lot of uncertainty," but could guide the province's approach to controlling transmission in the near term.

"What this does is offers us a chance to look at different potential things that could happen and understand what we need to do to prevent those from happening to keep our rates low and slow over the next period of time," she said.

The government did not announce any new COVID-19 measures related to Omicron on Tuesday, but once again strongly encouraged the public to keep holiday gatherings small, to continue following the indoor mask mandate, and to get a booster vaccine dose as soon as possible.

"This is a time, more than ever, that we need to hold the line. We need to continue to do those things we know work," Henry said. "They will work against Omicron."