B.C. election: Gap in support for parties is widening, pollster says

A view from above the B.C. legislature at Victoria, B.C., on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito

Friday marks the last day of campaigning in the 2024 B.C. provincial election.

British Columbians head to the polls Saturday to decide who will represent them in the legislature.

The majority of the campaign has been a tight race between John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives and David Eby’s B.C. New Democrats.

However, pollster Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., says the televised leaders debate was a turning point.

“If Rustad had connected in the debate and made a very specific plea for why change was needed, then we could be in a scenario where the Conservatives are ahead of the NDP by a couple of points and with a very good shot at forming the government. But right now, the numbers don't suggest that that's the case,” Canseco told CTV News.

The Conservatives had a surge of support at the start of the campaign, after the B.C. United party folded in late August.

The Conservatives had just two per cent of the vote and ran in only a handful of ridings back in 2020.

This election, the party secured a number of high-profile candidates like Elenore Sturko and Teresa Wat, which gave the party a renewed sense of credibility.

However, controversial comments made by some of Rustad’s team on issues of race, religion, and vaccines have overshadowed much of the party’s message.

“You can't be talking about what your candidate said or did on Facebook or Twitter. It's the kind of thing that you need to be able to review even before you consider them for the nomination, and because it takes away a lot of the air,” said Canseco.

He says Rustad’s personal numbers are lower than at the start of the campaign, which Canseco suggests means that the more people got to see him as a premier, the less they liked him.

“The numbers for the Conservatives, as far as voting, are also down from the midway point of the campaign, when it seemed like they were climbing to a point where they could actually catch up to the NDP,” said Canseco.

The Conservatives did not release their costed platform until the final days of the campaign, a move that may have hurt them.

“The Conservatives trying to get their foot in the door and talk about specific things they wanted to do, but without a platform, it's difficult to get people over 55 interested in what you're selling,” said Canseco.

Historically, the 55-plus age group is the most consistent in showing up to vote.

Canseco says Eby has done well at establishing an emotional connection in Metro Vancouver, the region with the most seats.

“It's not like he had a fantastic debate and was able to command the floor, and people were talking about him the next day. But he didn't have to do anything remarkable,” explained Canseco.

He believes the NDP is bound to lose seats in this election.

“I don't know if it's going to be maybe more in the Fraser Valley or in Surrey, or how the situation develops in the Okanagan, where they're holding on to some ground, but he's not going to be able to hold on to everything that John Horgan had. And that has to be seen as a little bit of a letdown in that sense,” said Canseco.

Canseco says he is impressed with how Sonia Furstenau, the B.C. Green leader, has been able to connect with voters.

“She had a great debate. She was able to talk about specific things, side with David Eby when it was meaningful, but also criticized David Eby when she felt it was to her advantage,” he said.

Her approval rating has increased since the televised debate.

Canseco says the Greens' biggest problem was they are about two dozen candidates short of a full slate this campaign.

That’s left voters in some ridings no option to vote for the party.

“If they want to be seen as a third party that can actually contest, similar to what the NDP is in Ontario provincial politics, you know, you may get to second place, you may form the government at some point. If they want to get to that level, you have to be able to run a full campaign,” said Canseco.

Another factor that will have more weight than ever in this election is a number of notable independent candidates.

The fall of B.C. United may cause vote splitting among those with conservative values.

“It might happen, and which is also deliciously ironic when you think about it. You know they're trying to avoid the vote split by folding the B.C. United tent. Now what you're going to have is a vote split caused by independents who Kevin Falcon didn't talk to before he decided that his political career was over,” said Canseco.

Although winning as an independent is no easy feat.

“When you reach the latter stages of the campaign, if the election is very close, people tend to gravitate towards selecting a government,” explained Canseco.

He also sees the way the shift in power from B.C. United to B.C. Conservative being problematic in the eyes of supporters.

“You don't spend the first eight months of the year bad mouthing each other and saying that this is a party full of people who are terrible, and I wouldn't trust them with anything, and I wouldn't trust John Rustad. And then 24 hours later, show up and say, guess what? The only thing that unites us is our hatred for David Eby,” said Canseco.

Canseco predicts that parts of Vancouver Island will be taken by the Conservatives on Saturday.

“I think they have a shot at winning a couple of seats, maybe in Nanaimo, maybe in the central and northern part of the island, not in southern Vancouver Island,” he said.

He believes the Fraser Valley will be one of the most interesting regions to watch.

In 2020, the NDP won seven of nine ridings in Langley.

“Now that you have sort of this new Conservative force, will they be able to break through?” said Canseco.

Elections BC says more than a million British Columbians cast their ballots in advance voting, smashing a record set during the pandemic election four years ago.

Advance polls have closed, but voters can still cast their ballots at any district electoral office in the province from now until 8 p.m. on Saturday.