B.C. COVID-19 update: hospital population drops below 200 for first time since 2021

A sign at the entrance to Surrey Memorial Hospital is seen on Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022. (CTV)

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control reported 188 test-positive COVID-19 patients in provincial hospitals Thursday, the first time the count has been below 200 in more than a year.

The latest decline continues the trend seen since the start of 2023. There were 356 people in hospital with COVID-19 in B.C. on Jan. 5.

The number of people in hospital with COVID-19 in B.C. on Thursdays in 2023 is shown. (CTV)

Since January 2022, the BCCDC's weekly count of coronavirus patients in hospital has included "incidental" cases, in which a patient is hospitalized for some other reason and tests positive for COVID-19 during screening.

Before this "hospital census" method of counting was implemented, hospitalization totals released by the BCCDC were intended to reflect only severe cases of COVID-19 requiring treatment in hospital.

Since the switch, the hospital census has been as high as 985, while the 188 reported Thursday is the lowest it has ever been. This is the third week in a row that the count has reached a new low.

Before the switch, B.C. last saw fewer than 188 people in hospital with COVID-19 on Dec. 22, 2021, when there were 187.

Given that health officials estimate that 50 to 60 per cent of hospitalizations reported under the current model are incidental, however, the more comparable date may be Aug. 14, 2021, when there were 89 people in hospital with serious cases of COVID.

Estimates suggest that the current hospital census includes between 72 and 94 non-incidental cases.

The trajectory of hospitalizations since the switch to a hospital census model can be seen in the graph that follows.

The number of COVID-19 patients in B.C. hospitals on Thursdays since the province switched to a "hospital census" model is shown. (CTV)

NEW CASES, NEW HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS

While the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 continued to decline this week, other indicators are showing signs they may be reaching a plateau.

The BCCDC reported fewer new lab-confirmed cases this week than it did last week, but only by a small margin.

Thursday's update showed 278 new cases confirmed during the week of Jan. 29 to Feb. 4. There were 292 recorded during the preceding week.

Similarly, the number of new hospital admissions – a separate measure that is not the same as the number of people currently hospitalized – increased during the week ending Feb. 4, compared to the previous week.

Last week, the BCCDC reported an initial count of 73 new hospital admissions for the period of Jan. 22 to 28. That total has since been revised up to 96.

This week, the BCCDC reported 88 new hospital admissions for Jan. 29 to Feb. 4, a higher starting point than last week's total. Hospital admissions data is typically revised upwards each week as information becomes "more complete," according to the BCCDC.

WASTEWATER

The weekly case-counts the BCCDC releases include only positive lab-based tests, which are not available to the vast majority of B.C. residents under the current provincial testing strategy.

This means the number of new infections recorded in the province is significantly higher – likely 100-fold higher, according to experts – than the totals the BCCDC reports.

To provide a clearer picture of how the coronavirus is spreading among those not included in the official count, the BCCDC also releases data on wastewater surveillance from the Lower Mainland and several communities in the Interior and on Vancouver Island.

As of last week, every region for which data was available showed a declining concentration of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

In most communities, however, the rate of decline was decreasing. Data for this week is likely to be posted later Thursday or Friday.