It was a long, dry summer for Vancouver real estate, especially when compared to the halcyon days of the summer before.
Vancouver real estate sales were down 36 per cent from August 2009, according to the latest monthly report for August from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
Prices, however, have stayed strong despite the fact that people aren't buying like they were just a few months ago. Over the last year, the benchmark price for all Vancouver housing increased from $539,600 to $576,597.
Homeowners may have been reluctant to get with the times and lower their prices, even though the average house currently takes 59 days to sell, according to the Real Estate Board figures. They might have been stuck on the 2007 mindset, when houses sold in mere days, amid bidding wars. Whatever their incentive, there are signs that home sellers are adjusting.
"One of the reasons we believe inventory levels are dropping now is because some of those sellers that were holding out for high prices couldn't get them anymore, and those listings have basically run out," says Board president Jake Moldowan.
It's called a buyers' market, and Moldowan says it's a healthy one when homes sell in less than two months.
House prices, however, have barely budged, with only a 2.8-per-cent price decrease since the historically high spring peak.
That should change, says Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union, the umbrella organization for credit unions in B.C. and Ontario. He predicts prices will start to drop more over the next few months. Those lower prices combined with low mortgage rates should boost sales.
Already, he's seeing signs of that scenario playing out. Canadian Real Estate Association figures show a 10-per-cent increase in Vancouver sales from July to August, he says. It may be a sign of what's to come in future months.
"There's still a large imbalance between sales and listings on the market, so more downward pressure should be evident through the next few months," Pastrick says of prices. "With mortgage rates coming down -- they are at almost their lowest point in quite some time -- that combination of low mortgage rates and lower housing prices should mean an increase in sales at some point in the not-too-distant future.
"I would expect prices to tail off for probably another three months or so, but not too much longer -- as long as sales continue to firm up, to rise. That's key."