One year after the introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax last July 1, Ontario businesses are seeing the benefits but there's little evidence they are passing the savings on in the form of lower prices.
The HST shifted taxes from businesses to consumers, removing the eight per cent provincial sales tax companies paid on new equipment and materials but adding the 13 per cent HST to a range of previously exempt items including gasoline, electricity and home heating.
With a provincial election just three months away, the governing Liberals are on the defensive about the HST, and say it is making businesses more competitive and the province a more attractive place to invest.
Finance Minister Dwight Duncan says it may be "a bit early" to see companies pass along their savings with lower prices, but he hears anecdotally it is starting to happen.
"There's a debate as to how long it takes for that pass through, but there's unanimity that it does," said Duncan.
"Small business people especially who originally opposed the HST are now starting to see their input tax credits coming back and they realize just what an enormous change this was. My sense is they are passing some of those savings on to consumers."
University of Toronto professor Michael Smart took at look at the impact of the HST in its first six months and concluded it was benefiting consumers and would bring them more relief in future.
Smart said consumer prices initially rose 0.9 per cent, but prices have since come down as tax credits are being passed onto consumers.
"Since input tax credits are likely passed on as lower prices or higher wages only gradually, the effect of the policy on after-tax real incomes will likely continue to improve over time," he wrote.
The opposition parties see no evidence the HST is helping lower prices, and both the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats promise to remove the provincial portion of the tax from electricity and home heating if elected.
"We've said from day one that the government was being quite optimistic in expecting the corporate sector to pass on savings to consumers," said NDP Leader Andrea Horwath. "We have not seen the evidence that savings from the HST are being passed along."
The Tories said the Liberals were especially "sneaky" last summer, PC Leader Tim Hudak said, by imposing a series of eco fees on everything from bleach to cleaning products along with the HST, without any advice notice to consumers.
"In effect, he hid one tax grab behind another," Hudak said.
Despite their criticisms of the HST, the Tories and NDP say they can't afford the $4.3 billion Ontario would have to pay the federal government to scrap the tax.
The province has created 74,000 net new jobs since last July 1, real income and gross domestic product are both up while unemployment is down from 9.4 to 7.9 per cent, and that good news is because of the HST combined with corporate and personal tax cuts, said Duncan.
"I'm crediting those directly to our tax plan for jobs and growth, which goes well beyond the HST," he said.
The Ontario Trucking Association said the timing of the HST was perfect to help members buy new trucks and tractors as the economy started to recover from the recession, but said it was unlikely truckers would lower prices.
"We're a very low margin business to begin with," said association president David Bradley, adding that the cost of fuel has also gone up.
The Ontario Chamber of Commerce said the HST combined with corporate tax cuts are improving Ontario's economy and creating jobs.
"This is sound economic policy which will position the province for long-term success in the global marketplace," said chamber president Len Crispino.
Selling the continuation of the HST to voters will be a challenge for the Liberals, but Duncan, who has already been knocking on doors in his Windsor riding, said he hasn't been greeted with a lot of anger over the sales tax.
"It's an issue but it's not visceral," he said. "There's still a lot of questions. A lot of people don't understand it, a lot of people don't look at the whole [tax] package, so that's very real.
"But it's not top of mind when I'm at the door and it's certainly not top of mind in the most recent polling."
The introduction of the HST in British Columbia last July led to the resignation of then-premier Gordon Campbell and is now the subject of a referendum by voters in the province who will decide whether or not to scrap the single sales tax.
The HST was not met with the same level of protest and anger in Ontario, but the opposition parties say voters will pass judgment on the tax in the Oct. 6 election.