The NDP-Green alliance managed to sustain its razor-thin majority in the B.C. legislature Wednesday, but the byelection results could still spell trouble for the Greens and their supporters.
According to Election BC’s initial count, only seven per cent of Nanaimo voters chose Green candidate Michele Ney, a dramatic drop from the 22 per cent who voted for Kathleen Harris back in 2017.
Much of that decline could be blamed on strategic voting, according to Kim Speers of the University of Victoria's School of Public Administration.
"A lot of those who have supported the Greens in the past, I think, were afraid their votes would be lost," she said.
While Speers doesn't believe actual support for the Greens is shrinking, she said the party's small share of the byelection ballots could be a sign of things to come.
"That might be a prelude to what's coming down the pipe in the next election," Speers said. "Given the set up in the legislature right now, I think people might do more strategic voting."
It's unclear exactly how much NDP candidate Sheila Malcolmson and BC Liberal candidate Tony Harris each may have benefited from Green supporters voting strategically.
On Thursday, Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson spun the results as a success, despite the party's loss in what was an unusually high-stakes byelection race.
"The Liberal campaign here in Nanaimo was exceptionally effective," he told reporters.
"We increased our vote by 28 per cent and it was a huge success at the local level in a town that has voted with the NDP consistently for 47 years, except once."
Harris is a developer and businessperson with strong name recognition in the riding. Thanks to his campaign, the party managed to increase its share of the vote from 35 per cent in 2017 to 40 per cent this week.
Had Harris been successful, the NDP-Green alliance and the BC Liberals would be tied at 43 seats each, potentially creating a stalemate that would have sent voters back to the polls for a provincial election sooner than later.
Even though the NDP government gained fresh footing, Wilkinson said the BC Liberals are getting prepared for a potential provincial election later this year anyway, just in case.
With files from CTV Vancouver's Bhinder Sajan