Two popular frontrunners have emerged in the horserace to become the leaders of B.C.'s two ruling political parties, according to a new survey released Thursday.
More than half of decided Liberal voters -- 51 per cent -- say former deputy premier and CKNW radio host Christy Clark would be a "good choice" to replace outgoing leader Gordon Campbell, while 43-per-cent of New Democrat voters said veteran MLA Mike Farnworth would be the right person to take over for Carole James, who stepped down earlier this week.
The Angus Reid Public Opinion poll, which surveyed 804 British Columbians, also found the Liberals and NDP locked in a dead heat for popularity, with 36-per-cent of voters saying they'd vote for each party. Fourteen-per-cent of respondents said they'd vote Green, and another five-per-cent said they'd back the BC Conservative Party.
Three-in-four British Columbians who voted for the BC Liberals last year say they'll stick with the party, up from 55-per-cent in the days after Gordon Campbell announced he was stepping down as leader.
The support for the BC Liberals is back to the levels seen during the 2009 election, says Mario Canseco of Angus Reid Public Opinion.
"The results show what we've been seeing all along. The support for NDP is soft, and the party popularity was mostly based on the hatred of Gordon Campbell," Canseco told ctvbc.ca.
The NDP's popularity dropped from 47-per-cent of decided voters last month to 36-per-cent this month.
Clark ahead
The poll found radio host Christy Clark is far-and-away the most popular choice by Liberal voters as a "good choice" to take over as the next provincial leader, followed by Kevin Falcon (42%), Mike de Jong (40%), George Abbott (35%) and Moira Stillwell (8%).
Canseco says Clark has two things going for her over the other candidates: name recognition because of her radio talk show and being untouched by the Harmonized Sales Tax scandal.
"Here's a person who wasn't in cabinet when the HST came about. She's definitely talked about it more than other candidates," Canseco said.
But Canseco says in order for Clark to win the Liberal leadership she has to do more than just appeal to the B.C. population.
"She needs to do something that unites the two wings of the Liberal party," he said. "Ultimately, this is in the hands of the BC Liberal members."
New Democrats
While no B.C. New Democrat has announced their intention to take over for outgoing leader Carole James, the survey also asked respondents what they thought about 10 prominent politicians taking over for the longtime leader.
Mike Farnworth rated tops among all British Columbians, with 34-per-cent.
"He did remarkably well across the board – we seem to have a very big frontrunner," Canseco said.
Despite neither of them actually running, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson and dissident MLA Jenny Kwan, who called on James to step down, each received the support of 27-per-cent of British Columbians. Kwan's number jumps to 35-per-cent when looking at current NDP supporters.
Adrian Dix ranked fourth, with 22-per-cent support.
Perhaps what's most interesting about the NDP numbers are the contenders that didn't rank favourably with respondents.
Six others – Moe Sihota, ex-MLA Bob Simpson, John Horgan, Burnaby Mayor Derrick Corrigan, Bruce Ralston and George Heyman – were regarded as "good choices" by less than two-in-five British Columbians and NDP voters.
A leaderless party
The B.C. electorate appears to be split when faced with a choice of selecting either one of the main two political parties without a discernable leader in place.
Fourteen-per-cent of respondents said they'd vote for the BC Liberals regardless of who's in charge, with the same percentage saying they'd vote NDP no matter who's in the hot seat. Another 16-per-cent don't plan on backing either of the two main parties come 2013.
The numbers leave more than half of the electorate, 57-per-cent, pondering their political options, something pollsters say the parties should consider going forward.
"We had seven years of Carole and 17 years of Campbell. Who becomes the face is very important to the future of the party," Canseco said, adding that voters are looking to make an emotional connection with the person who leads the party.
"This didn't happen with Campbell or James, and Campbell was seen as aloof and arrogant. It's the key to whoever wins the race."