The BC Liberals will likely send the province to the ballot box in 2011 to capitalize on recent infighting among opposition New Democrats, according to one political scientist from Simon Fraser University.
Kennedy Stewart of the SFU School of Public Policy says voters can expect a snap-election to be announced sometime in February shortly after the Liberal party's leadership vote.
"They're looking at [a divided NDP party] and saying, ‘This is our golden moment,'" Stewart said.
Calling an early election would be difficult, but not impossible. The Liberals amended B.C.'s Constitution Act in 2001 to institute fixed election dates, but Lieutenant Governor Steven Point can still force an election by dissolving the legislature. A non-confidence vote would also spur an early election.
The vote would likely coincide with the pending HST referendum, Stewart said, which is currently slated for September but could be bumped up to spring or early summer.
The earlier it's set, the less time the NDP will have to tend to its wounds.
New Democrat leader Carole James announced her reluctant resignation on Monday morning after a baker's dozen of dissident MLAs threatened to critically rupture the opposition party if she stayed on.
Division in the party had been mounting for weeks. In November, caucus whip Katrine Conroy resigned her position, saying she felt she no longer had the support of James or the NDP Caucus.
She followed former caucus chairman Norm MacDonald, who left in October in response to James' decision to boot MLA Bob Simpson from caucus for criticizing her leadership.
Now, with James gone, political pundit Gary Mauser calls the Liberals a "shoo-in."
"The NDP is self-destructing," he said. "This is reminiscent of the NDP mutiny back in the Bob Skelly days. I think the party is shooting itself in the foot politically."
Mauser says Jenny Kwan, one of the 13 MLAs who has publicly criticized James in the past week, is the only person fit to take over the party's leadership – but the long-serving member stated she has no interest in taking the reins.
Other possible candidates including Deputy House Leader Adrian Dix, House Leader Mike Farnworth and Finance Critic Bruce Ralston. Some have speculated Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson would be a strong candidate to take over the party, but the mayor said Monday his focus is on the city.
The Liberals were in similar turmoil mere weeks ago when Leader Gordon Campbell announced his resignation amid dismal polling numbers, public criticism from his MLAs and widespread frustration over the harmonized sales tax – but Kennedy says the party now has a chance to reclaim favour.
Of the several candidates who have announced they will run to replace Campbell, Stewart says Health Minister Kevin Falcon is the most likely to succeed.
"He's very savvy politically and he's looking at this situation and saying ‘I can not only pull the party back from the brink, I can have a majority going right into 2015.'" Stewart said.
Campbell had poll numbers in the single digits when he resigned. James was pressured to leave despite receiving 33 per cent public approval in her last poll, which Stewart says indicates a party division that will mean an uphill battle for any potential successor.
"We have whips resigning and going on one side, we have long-time MLAs on the other side, and we don't really have anybody in the middle other than perhaps some labour union leaders," he said.
"You gotta ask yourself: who would want this job?"