As BC Liberal members take to their phones and keyboards to vote for their next leader, a panel of political insiders says the outcome of Saturday's convention is far from a sure thing.
CTV News has assembled a panel of experts to dissect and analyze the BC Liberal leadership race: Premier Gordon Campbell's former press secretary Bridgitte Anderson, former NDP cabinet minister Bob Williams and former Liberal attorney general Geoff Plant.
The three panellists spoke with ctvbc.ca to give their predictions on how Saturday's convention will turn out.
First things first: Who will be the next leader of the BC Liberals?
All three experts say this race is too close to call. Only Williams, the lone New Democrat, is prepared to make anything close to a prediction.
"Does anybody know?" he asked. "Christy Clark has a big head start it seems, but with those second votes, [George] Abbott just might come up through the middle."
But even if he's not confident in his predictions, the NDP supporter knows who he wants his party to face in the next election: Clark.
"I think Christy Clark, if she doesn't call an immediate election, has a very short shelf life," Williams said.
"Deep down, she's shallow .... She's made it clear that if she's not leader, she's probably not going to run to be an MLA."
Plant says that he's been asked several times to make a bet about who will win the leadership vote, but believes it's impossible to cut through the rhetoric and spin coming out of each campaign.
"Why would I bet on anything when I can't predict the outcome?" he said.
"One of the challenges with trying to make an informed prediction, is at this point in the campaign, the candidates are putting as much spin on their chances as they are facts."
But one thing is certain: Mike de Jong isn't likely to be B.C.'s next premier.
"I think even he's predicting that he'll come in fourth," Williams said.
How big of a role will second and third preferences play in the vote?
One reason the outcome of the race is so hard to predict is the large influence second and third preferences could have on the vote, the panellists say.
"I would be shocked if there was a first ballot winner," Anderson said. "I think the second preference is really going to play a huge role."
Plant said that even the candidates are likely clueless about how voters will pick their second and third preferences.
"I do think that the preferences will play a large role, and I do think they're not likely to split as the candidates would like them to," he said.
He acknowledged that some candidates -- like Kevin Falcon and Abbott -- have advised their supporters about second choices, but added, "The members will make their own minds up."
What about the weighted voting system?
According to the Liberals' new voting system, votes from each B.C. riding will be weighted so that every part of the province has an equal say. Each riding will have a total of 100 points, even though urban Vancouver ridings have thousands more members than those in the north and rural areas.
"Rural and remote ridings will have disproportionate effect," Plant explained.
"When the candidates are telling you how they're doing, they don't seem to be taking that into consideration."
That could help give one candidate the extra push he needs; Falcon, de Jong and Clark are all urbanites.
"This clearly seems to help the one candidate that's from the Interior, George Abbott," Williams said.
What should be the new premier's first priority?
No matter who wins Saturday's vote, they're likely to have their work cut out for them as premier, inheriting a range of contentious policies from Campbell, including the harmonized sales tax, as well as large budget deficit.
For Clark, the priority might be to make sure there's still a BC Liberal party when she wakes up Sunday morning.
"There are a lot of concerns that she will not be able to pull the caucus together," Anderson said.
"I have heard from some Liberal MLAs that they're sitting on the fence right now about running again. Christy has got a huge amount of work cut out for her."
Even watching from the outside, Williams says he's getting vibes that Clark might not be the most popular candidate within the Liberal elite.
"When you've got only one MLA supporting you and he's a lonely backbencher who hasn't got very far, it tells you everything you need to know," he said.
"It's a sign that the public might not be right."
But Plant said that party unity should be a main concern for whoever wins the vote, and the new leader needs to do whatever they can to keep the defeated candidates onside.
"I think that one of the first things that the new leader has to do is to start sending strong signals about how important it is to keep the party united and how they plan to do that," he said.
And Williams says the next leader needs to set themselves apart from Campbell, who was famously described as a bully and a spitter by ousted Liberal MLA Bill Bennett.
"They have to reverse Campbell's management style, which was pretty dictatorial," Williams said.
Watch CTV News at Five and Six for more from the panellists
Have your say: What are your predictions for the BC Liberal leadership vote?
