As ballots start arriving in mailboxes on Monday, a newly-released poll finds those who plan to vote “no” in Metro Vancouver's transit referendum outnumber “yes” voters by more than a two-to-one margin.
When presented with the ballot question -- “Do you support a new 0.5% Metro Vancouver Congestion Improvement Tax to be dedicated to the Mayors’ Transportation and Transit plan?” -- 61 per cent of those polled by the Angus Reid Institute said they will either “definitely” or “probably” vote no.
Only 27 per cent of respondents said they’re likely to vote yes, with only 10 per cent saying they’ll “definitely” do so.
The remaining 12 per cent of those surveyed remain undecided.
Robertson: yes vote ‘important’
The polling data was released Monday morning, as several Metro Vancouver mayors were gathering for a “yes” rally at Douglas College in New Westminster.
Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson thanked the college for its support for the “yes” side and reiterated the case for voting for the new tax.
“It’s hard to imagine anything more important right now than investing in transportation and transit for our region’s quality of life, for our economy, and for our environment,” he said. “This single action by voters across Metro Vancouver triggers an enormous investment in improving our region.”
Robertson’s message seems to be resonating more with residents of the City of Vancouver, those under age 35, and those with a university education, though even those demographics are “leaning no,” according to the Angus Reid poll.
TransLink to blame for ‘no’ votes
Anger at TransLink, as well as a general distaste for new taxes, seems to be fueling the “no” side.
When asked to select from a list of reasons for one might vote “no,” 61 per cent of poll respondents chose “TransLink cannot be trusted with the extra funds that will be raised.” Another 43 per cent said they simply don’t want an additional tax.
“This campaign really is about a tax and about a government agency that frankly doesn't do a good job of managing the money they already get," said Jordan Bateman, B.C. director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, who has been one of the most vocal supporters of the “no” side.
The “no” campaign has posted a long list of examples of “wasteful spending” by TransLink on its website, but local blogger Brad Cavanagh takes issue with their framing of the debate.
“Their information is accurate, but it’s completely out of context,” Cavanagh told CTV News. “They’re not including the full story.”
‘It’s not a lot of money’
The full story, according to Cavanagh, is that the roughly $1.9 million TransLink “wasted” is a miniscule part of its overall budget -- about 0.13 per cent. Even if all of that money had been saved, it couldn’t be used for much, he said.
“It’s not a lot of money,” Cavanagh said. “A new bus costs about $400,000 to buy. They could put five buses on the road. And that’s it.”
Ballots in the transit referendum must be mailed by May 29. The “yes” side knows it faces an uphill battle between now and then.
As Port Coquitlam Mayor Greg Moore told CTV Morning Live on Monday, the mayors hope voters will do research like Cavanagh’s and come to see the vote not as a referendum on TransLink, but on the transit plan.
"Whether you vote yes, or you vote no, I think the province has heard that change at TransLink is required,” Moore said. “I'd also challenge people to look into it. Don't believe what they read on social media."
The Angus Reid poll surveyed 950 Metro Vancouver residents and was conducted between Feb. 25 and March 5. Polls of that size have a margin of error of 3.3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
