With just days left before BC Liberal party members will vote to decide the next premier of the province, local radio personality Christy Clark is winning the horse race to rule the province, according to an Angus Reid Public Opinion poll released exclusively to CTV and the Globe and Mail.

The survey also shows a major turning point for the Liberals. Without Gordon Campbell at the helm, the party has pulled ahead of the B.C. NDP in terms of popularity – 41 to 38 per cent.

The shift marks the first Liberal lead since the 2009 election.

"It shows that a lot of people are connecting with the Liberals now that Gordon Campbell is out and are really looking at these four candidates and saying that these are people they could support in the next election," Mario Canseco of Angus Reid Public Opinion told ctvbc.ca.

The Green Party and BC Conservatives make up the remaining 11 and four per cent of voting intentions.

Related:  Angus Reid poll

Among 811 British Columbians polled from Feb. 15 to 17, 42 per cent said Christy Clark would be the right choice to replace Campbell, while 30 per cent said George Abbott would be the right person for the job.

Kevin Falcon was deemed a good choice by 27 per cent of respondents, while Mike de Jong was given the nod by 26 per cent.

Support for Clark soared the highest when looking at respondents who voted for the BC Liberals in 2009. Clark won 67 per cent of support among Liberal voters, followed by Falcon (51 per cent), Abbott (46 per cent) and de Jong (46 per cent).

But if Clark is seeing the most popularity among party faithful, it may not remain that way this weekend, considering the growing momentum among the remaining three leadership contenders.

Both Abbott and de Jong made huge gains in popularity since December, each leaping 12 points. Falcon also saw a six-point increase. Clark only saw a one-point bump in the same time period.

"On the one side, Christy Clark has very nice numbers but the other candidates have the momentum and that could play a major role as we lead up to Saturday's vote," Canseco said.

Canseco said the weighted voting system in the convention means that candidates who aren't chosen first on the ballot could still win in the end.

"You could conceivably have a leader who is the second choice for everybody but makes it past his other rivals because of the situation that we have. So anything can happen," he said.

New Democrats

While the BC Liberals saw their popularity jump with the resignation of their leader, the same cannot be said for the B.C. New Democrats, who have suffered major losses since the resignation of Carole James.

For the first time in 24 months, the NDP has fallen behind the Liberals in terms of overall popularity, with 38 per cent of voter support. It's a far cry from the 23-point lead the party saw in the first few days after the implementation of the HST last summer.

Canseco said the party's largest failing was not connecting with BC Liberal voters who were fed up with their own party after the HST took effect.

"They didn't capitalize on several factors, the HST – never said what they would do with it," he said.

Canseco says James was never seen as someone who could "rule the show in Victoria," which made it difficult for the party to make any large overall gains in the eyes of British Columbians.

Still, the party could make some important gains as they choose the person who will lead them into the future.

"They're down right now, but if we look at the momentum they could generate in a good leadership race, like the BC Liberals did, we could head into the summer going into a tie," Canseco said.

NDP leadership hopeful Mike Farnworth is seen as the best choice to lead the party by 42 per cent of B.C. residents.

Adrian Dix comes in second with 27-per-cent support, followed by John Horgan (12 per cent), Dana Larsen (9 per cent) and Nicholas Simons (5 per cent).

Angus Reid Public Opinion claims a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent.

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