An independent Canadian advisory panel will meet later this month to assess the status of one of the ocean's top predators: the killer whale.

But whale experts suggest the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada, known as COSEWIC, is unlikely to recommend sweeping changes to the species-at-risk designations of five distinct orca populations.

The designation of so-called "southern residents," a population of 83 whales found in Puget Sound and the southern end of the Straight of Georgia, is unlikely to change, said Lance Barrett-Lennard, an adjunct professor at the University of British Columbia and co-chair of a federally-appointed orca recovery team.

The southern residents are currently designated as "endangered," the most serious risk assessment.

"They're in pretty rough shape. At the time of the last COSEWIC assessment, they were given an endangered listing. Their situation hasn't really improved since then," Barrett-Lennard said.

"That population, at 83 animals, is just hanging on by the skin of its teeth. If it was any other species, we'd think that they were very likely to be goners."

Barrett-Lennard co-wrote a paper to be presented at COSEWIC's meetings in Ottawa Nov. 25-28, where the arm's-length scientific body will assess the status of killer whales.

His paper will shape COSEWIC's final report to Environment Minister Jim Prentice, who can accept the recommendations, reject them or send them back to the panel for further study.

Barrett-Lennard wouldn't divulge his paper's findings. However, he and other whale experts say it's doubtful COSEWIC will recommend changes to the status of southern residents.

Watchers of the southern residents have reported declining birth rates, a loss of blubber and the onset of a condition known as "peanut head," a sign of starvation possibly resulting from a shortage of salmon the orcas feed on.

Seven of the southern residents recently disappeared off the north coast of Washington and southern British Columbia and are presumed dead.

Declining numbers

The killer whales suffered a 20 per cent decline in population between 1993 and 2003 before recovering slightly. But some worry they are perilously close to extinction.

"Pretty soon you're getting to the point where there aren't enough to significantly add to the population, or have any potential for adding (to the population). It would eventually die out, just natural mortality," said Ken Balcomb of the Center for Whale Research in Friday Harbor, Wash.

"It's quite critical. We have about a dozen females now, and we had just lost two, so we're down to a dozen. If we lost two a year for the next five years, we're basically out of reproductive whales."

Eight environmental groups have taken Ottawa to court, demanding the government invoke the federal Species at Risk Act to protect the southern residents' habitat. The environmentalists want the federal government to make some areas off-limits to vessel traffic and close some salmon fisheries to preserve fish stocks.

Stronger designations

COSEWIC may also recommend Ottawa upgrade another pod of about 200 orcas, found in the coastal waters of northern B.C. and southeastern Alaska, from "threatened" to the more serious "endangered" designation.

The northern residents have relatively stable numbers, though the federal species-at-risk registry shows a seven per cent drop over the past four years.

The southern residents sometimes hint at what might happen to their northern cousins, said Jane Watson of Vancouver Island University, co-chair of COSEWIC's marine mammal species specialist committee.

"The southern residents are often bellwethers for what's going on in the northern residents," she said.

Food shortage

And like the southern residents, Barrett-Lennard says, it appears the northern residents are having trouble finding food.

"Those of us in the business are worried that this may be a really rough winter," he said.

"We kind of expect to see a lot of mortalities this winter, just because the animals really tank up in the late summer and early fall on salmon and build up fat to make it through the winter there.

"We think these guys are going into the winter with their tanks only half full, so that's definitely a concern."

Also up for assessment are:

  • The West Coast transients, a population of about 220 whales found in the Pacific Ocean between California and Alaska. Last classified as "threatened."
  • The Northeast Pacific offshore whales, a population of between 200 and 250 orcas found off the West Coast. Last classified as "special concern."
  • The Arctic whales, an obscure population found in the North Atlantic and Eastern Arctic. COSEWIC didn't have enough data to classify this population during the last assessment.