The races to lead British Columbia's two main parties are shaping up to include the usual suspects of high-profile caucus members -- candidates who have spent years building party support and can already count on the campaign machinery of their local riding associations to help them out.
But there are also a handful of so-called outsiders in the mix, ranging from a former cabinet minister who's been out of politics for years to what one political scientist describes as "fringe" candidates with little chance of making much of showing when the votes are counted.
Those outsiders all face challenges building support across the province, observers say, but some will run into more hurdles than others.
"There are outsiders, and then there are outsiders," veteran political scientist Norman Ruff said in an interview.
"There are two categories: There are those who haven't been part of the existing power structure -- either ever or for some time -- but are treated as serious candidates. And then there are fringe outsiders, people who are likely to pick up a handful of votes."
Premier Gordon Campbell and NDP Leader Carole James both resigned late last year. The Liberals elect their new leader on Feb. 26, and the New Democrats do the same in April. The Liberal race is well underway, while the full roster of candidates for the NDP is expected to emerge in the coming weeks.
The latest candidate to enter the fray is Ed Mayne, the mayor of the small Vancouver Island city of Parksville. The 60-year-old former Tim Hortons vice-president plans to officially announce his candidacy for the Liberal leadership on Tuesday.
Ruff puts Mayne in the second category, someone with almost no profile who, Ruff argues, will be lucky to receive more than a few votes.
Also in that category, Ruff says, is pot activist Dana Larsen, the only declared candidate for the NDP leadership. He's already faced opposition from within the party.
There are also candidates who could be considered outsiders because they aren't currently in the provincial legislature, but who still have significant ties to their parties and are serious contenders, said Ruff.
On the Liberal side, that includes Christy Clark, a former deputy premier who left politics in 2005 and went on to host a radio call-in show.
Of the names that have emerged as potential candidates for the NDP, that would include Sierra Club of B.C. executive director George Heyman and federal New Democrat MPs Peter Julian and Nathan Cullen.
Even for them, Ruff said it really depends on who you're talking about.
"Christy Clark is an outsider in the sense of not being part of the Campbell government record as of late, in particular its record with respect to the HST (harmonized sales tax)", said Ruff, who added that distance could help her.
"She's certainly not fringe, she's a major contender."
Heyman has a long history in the province's labour movement, taking an active role in Carole James' successful leadership campaign in 2003. But the new one-member-one-vote system, where so-called "affiliated groups" have less sway, will make those connections less valuable, said Ruff.
And while Julian and Cullen will benefit from their profile as MPs, Ruff suggested that might not go very far.
"There's a gulf between those who are active in provincial politics and those who are active in federal politics, and very few NDP MPs really have any deep connections with what goes on with the provincial organization," said Ruff. "Neither of them are people who have hitherto played a role in the provincial scene."
For his part, Mayne insists his status as an outsider will help his chances.
"I think it puts me in a really good position, quite honestly. I'm not tied to the old government in any way, I can come in with fresh ideas and I come with more credibility," Mayne said in an interview Monday, a day before he planned to announce his candidacy and step down as Parksville mayor.
"I wouldn't be here if I didn't think I could win."
Kennedy Stewart, who teaches public policy at Simon Fraser University, said it's extremely difficult for true outsiders to enter political races and win.
One person who did just that is Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson in his former life as a provincial NDP politician, said Stewart.
Robertson came from outside of the party to win a hotly contested nomination in a Vancouver-area riding ahead of the 2005 election, when he won his seat.
But it wasn't easy.
"How did he do that? Gregor Robertson got in the race about two years before the election and just worked and worked and worked and spent lots of money building up teams of people to work for him," said Stewart.
"And that's just to win a constituency."
The other candidates for the Liberal race are George Abbott, Mike de Jong, Kevin Falcon and Moira Stilwell -- all former cabinet ministers.
For the NDP, caucus members Harry Lali, Leonard Krog, John Horgan, Adrian Dix, Mike Farnworth and Bruce Ralston have indicated they are considering running.
