As of Wednesday only 6.5 per cent of eligible voters have returned their ballots on election reform, weighing in on whether the province should change how they vote.

The ballots need to be in the Elections BC office, not just in a mailbox, by Nov. 30.

Turnout is low, but that may not be unusual at this point. For those still making up their minds, CTV News asked an expert who wins and who loses with the different voting options. Not sure what the options are? Here's a quick explainer.

Daniel Westlake, an assistant teaching professor in the University of Victoria's political science department, is still poring over the options before he mails in his ballot.

He's published models on his blog showing how many seats different parties win under different proposed proportional representation systems. The aim of pro-rep is for a party's number of seats to be closer to their share of the vote.

"The obvious benefactor is going to be the Green Party," he told CTV Wednesday.

"Their voters are kind of spread out across the province and they finish second or third in a lot of ridings."

It's not enough to get them elected under First Past the Post, but their odds are increased with a pro-rep system.
 

Proportional representation


The above image from Daniel Westlake's blog shows the possible results of the 2017 election had the province been using a rural-urban proportional system. More models and information on his methodology are available on his blog.

Westlake's models are not actually predictions because it's impossible to know how people will vote in the future, and some details haven't been worked out. But his work suggests another party might fare better with proportional representation as well.

"The NDP I think probably also stand to benefit. Their voters tend to be concentrated in urban areas," he said.

"The Liberals tend to be more popular in rural areas, and there are rural areas of the province that have a few less voters than urban areas."

To keep the ridings a reasonable size geographically, there can't be as many voters in some rural ridings, he said.

If the province adopts pro-rep, Conservatives may decide it's better to split up and run under their own banner, as the shift could benefit groups with scattered supporters.

"It might be harder for the Liberals to hold their coalition together," he said.

To those who watched last week's debate or have been following rhetoric from B.C.'s leaders, he offered the following reminder: "Whenever we're dealing with politicians – and this is politicians on the left and right – there's always a bit of self-interest going on, so it's important to keep that in mind.

Westlake also advised voters to think about how they feel about majority governments.

"Do they want them? If so, first past the post is probably better for them. If you're concerned about majority governments then you're probably better off under proportional representation," he said.

Westlake said he will also consider how the systems balance regional representation before making his choice.

With a report from CTV Vancouver's Bhinder Sajan