Incumbent mayor Gregor Robertson and challenger Kirk LaPointe are neck-and-neck just days out from the Vancouver election, according to a new Insights West poll.
The poll, conducted Thursday through Saturday, found Non-Partisan Association candidate LaPointe trailing close behind Vision Vancouver’s Robertson among decided voters, at 41 and 46 per cent, respectively.
But pollster Mario Canseco said the race is far from over, and both parties have a shot at winning over the huge segment of potential voters still sitting on the fence.
“We do have 27 per cent of residents who are undecided and intend to vote, so there’s a lot of fluidity at this point,” Canseco said.
Most of the people surveyed thought Robertson was the best candidate to handle issues of housing, poverty, the environment, and transportation, while LaPointe was seen as better suited to deal with city finances and taxation, economic development, and crime.
Canseco said housing was the number one issue for most people polled, but that doesn’t mean Robertson is in for a cakewalk. In fact, it could be the mayor’s tightest race yet.
“The numbers suggest that it’s going to be closer than what we saw in 2008 against Peter Ladner, what we saw in2011 against Suzanne Anton,” Canseco said.
Significant support for Cope mayoral candidate Meena Wong could also spell trouble for the mayor by splitting the centre-left vote, according to Canseco. Wong was favoured by nine per cent of decided voters in the poll.
Robertson was also the only candidate tracking a negative momentum score, with 25 per cent of respondents reporting that their views of the mayor had worsened, compared to just six per cent who said they’ve improved.
Both LaPointe and Wong had positive momentum scores of net four per cent.
Asked about the latest polling results Monday, Robertson said he’s expected a tight race from the outset.
“It’s competitive and it’s really going to be up to voters coming out and believing that there is a real difference and a contrast in this election,” he said.
“We see the NPA not concerned with affordable housing and homelessness, not willing to push back on the Kinder Morgan pipeline, and not focused on transit, a huge need in Vancouver. Those are top priorities for us.”
LaPointe agreed that the parties have different approaches, promising more transparency and community consultation than Vision has offered over the last six years.
“I’ve provided a message of openness and a message that says I will be listening to neighbourhoods and to individuals in a way they haven’t been,” he said.
“The way we’re going to win it is to make sure that people understand that we will have a different style, a different culture, that I will be a very different mayor.”
The poll was conducted among 505 Vancouver residents who are members of Your Insights, Insights West’s in-house panel.
The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
