The 'Big One' is not the earthquake B.C. scientists are most concerned about

The pending megathrust earthquake known as the “Big One” has been a source of worry on B.C.’s South Coast for years – but some scientists are even more concerned about the potential impact of smaller quakes closer to Metro Vancouver.

The long-feared megathrust magnitude nine earthquake will come from the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate, off the coast of Vancouver Island, being subducted by the North American plate. But there are also faults west of Vancouver in the Strait of Georgia, and south of the U.S. border near Abbotsford.

Without downplaying the severity of the Big One, scientists fear quakes that strike closer to the province’s biggest cities could have serious consequences for even more people.

“We think these faults are capable of generating magnitude six, maybe even seven earthquakes, so these are the types of structures that are really of concern to us,” said Dr. John Clague of the Department of Earth Sciences at Simon Fraser University.

“We actually worry more about those, in terms of the potential local impacts of a magnitude six or seven earthquake, than we do about the Big One.”

The good news is that the kind of powerful, magnitude 7.8 quakes the world is witnessing in Turkiye and Syria are rare, and Clague doesn’t believe British Columbia will see a similar type “in the near or medium future.”

“The flipside is that if we were to, we couldn’t deal with it,” he cautioned. “If we were to have an earthquake like that, we would not be ready. There is just no way you can totally prepare for a catastrophe on this scale.”

Metro Vancouver has seismic provisions in building codes, but Clague believes they are not strong enough to withstand such a large quake.

Perhaps not surprisingly, there has been a sudden spike in people preparing and buying emergency kits since the Turkiye and Syria quakes struck.

The City of Vancouver recommends a grab-and-go bag for each person in a home. Each kit should include a flashlight, radio, water, food, whistle, gloves, plastic poncho, notepad, first aid kit and prescribed medications. Anyone with a pet should ensure their bag includes kibble and extra water.

“Having cash in your kit is essential,” advised Vancouver’s emergency planning coordinator Jackie Kloosterboer.

“After an earthquake or major disaster, you may not have access to the bank machines.”

A copy of important documents, like insurance papers, is also a good idea.

Kloosterboer also recommends checking kits every six months for items that may have expired and need to be replaced.