Poll: BC Conservatives gaining momentum, Eby still favoured as premier

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad addresses the Construction Innovation Summit in Vancouver, B.C., Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024. (Darryl Dyck / The Canadian Press)

A new Leger poll suggests the BC Conservatives are now in pole position.

The survey was taken from Sept. 27 through 30 and found the BC Conservatives with 46 per cent of the vote, compared to 43 per cent for the NDP. The Greens sit at 10 per cent.

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Steven Mossop with Leger says the Conservatives have seen a steady rise in polling over the past month.

“Right now, it’s all in the hands of the Conservatives,” said Mossop. “The last four waves we’ve seen an increase of about seven points in the intention of the Conservative vote.”

The survey showed the BC Conservatives unexpectedly gaining with young people and women voters.

“Typically, parties that are considered to be right-wing parties don’t do well in those categories,” said Mossop.

With housing affordability as a key election issue, one political scientist believes young people are seeking change in the status quo.

“Young people are feeling increasingly of the view that they won’t be able to afford a house, ever,” said Hamish Telford, a political science professor.

“That’s got them quite concerned.”

While the Conservative wave appears to be rising, there’s uncertainty about party leader John Rustad. The poll finds Rustad (38%) trailing NDP Leader David Eby (45%) as the "perceived best fit as premier." Green Leader Sonia Furstenau polled at 16 per cent.

“We have an instance where the party seems to be more popular than the leader, which you don’t often see in election tracking,” said Mossop.

“From the polls, it’s still not absolutely clear that British Columbians know who Rustad is,” said Telford.

Telford says he believes the BC Conservatives continue to benefit from the popularity of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Despite the Conservatives appearing to have the slight edge, the poll also found the number of undecided voters could sway the election.

“With nine points undecided, it depends on where those people go. That will determine the outcome on election day,” said Mossop. “We could see a swing either way depending on where those voters end up.”

The Leger poll was conducted online among 1,002 B.C.-based respondents ages 18 and older. The participants were "randomly recruited" from Leger's online panel.

For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,002 respondents would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.