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Keep holiday gatherings small, Canada's top doctor urges while predicting COVID-19 surge

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Canada's top doctor is urging people to keep their holiday parties small this year after the latest federal modelling shows COVID-19 cases are climbing across the country.

"This is another bump on the road and we still don't know enough about the Omicron variant except that it is very transmissible," said Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, in a briefing Friday.

Federal modelling shows if Omicron replaces Delta as the dominant strain, cases could go up to 12,000 a day by the new year.

On Friday morning, there were 87 confirmed Omicron cases in Canada, not including the 5 new cases in B.C. that were announced that afternoon.

Tam said most of the documented cases are linked to international travel and close contacts, but there are early signs of community spread.

"Keeping private gatherings small is quite important at this point while we learn more,” said Tam.

“Gathering with a smaller number of people in well-ventilated places – all of those layers of protection … can still enable us to have a good time while being safer and being precautionary.”

Dr. Sally Otto, a member of the independent B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group, said the federal government's data reflects the group’s own findings about COVID-19 trends.

She said although the potential spikes driven by Omicron are steep, it's unclear how severe those cases will be.

Health officials said most cases are asymptomatic or mild, but Otto said that may have just been luck of the draw.

"Almost everyone who's gotten it is either vaccinated or has a high chance of a previous exposure, so they're coming in with an immune recognition of Omicron," Otto said.

She said the big question mark is what will happen when the unvaccinated population or children get infected with the strain.

"It's challenging for us going into the holiday season with yet another a variant of concern making our holiday plans unknown," Otto said. "This is a time just to be a little extra bit careful because we don't know what Omicron is going to bring. We will start to see the community transmission any day now, if it's not already spreading. We've seen it in Ontario, so it might be coming to B.C. soon."

Tam recommends people continue to wear masks, wash hands and gather in well-ventilated spaces.

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