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It'll be a warmer-than-normal summer everywhere in Canada—except coastal B.C.: ECCC

Environment Canada's summer temperature outlook was released on Tuesday, June 11. Environment Canada's summer temperature outlook was released on Tuesday, June 11.
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This summer is shaping up to be warmer than average across the country, Environment and Climate Change Canada says. Except one region is an outlier—coastal British Columbia.

The weather agency gave a presentation Tuesday on its seasonal forecast, revealing where in Canada temperatures are expected to be hotter than normal, or colder, in the case of B.C.’s coast.

Jennifer Smith, national warning preparedness meteorologist, explained the seasonal forecast uses climate models to predict temperature and precipitation over the next three months, when compared to average weather conditions over the past 30 years.

The summer forecast is presented in terms of probability relative to what’s typical for the season.

For the eastern half of Canada and parts of the north, ECCC says there’s a 90 to 100 per cent chance this summer will be warmer than normal. Going west through the prairies, hotter than normal temperatures are also expected, but with slightly lower certainty.

“It’s important to note that this chart does not indicate by how much temperatures are expected to be above normal nor by how continuous those temperatures might be,” Smith said. “Daily weather will vary.”

In B.C., the Interior is forecast to be warmer than average, with the chances generally getting lower heading west. For the Lower Mainland, the chances of a hotter summer are around 40 to 60 per cent.

But on Vancouver Island, the North Coast and Haida Gwaii, near normal or below normal temperatures are in the forecast.

“It doesn’t mean that those parts of Canada won’t experience warm spells, but when evaluating the season as a whole, the net temperature might not be above what is climatologically normal,” Smith said.

ECCC also presented a forecast for precipitation levels, but noted that rainfall is much more difficult to predict and climate models couldn’t give a reliable picture.

“There’s not really a clear signal for the summer season in terms of precipitation,” Smith said.

Even still, the precipitation outlook shows that for coastal B.C., including Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland, there’s roughly a 40 to 60 per cent chance there will be more rain than normal this summer.

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