Five years ago this Monday, in early January, I had dinner with one of the senior members of then-prime minister Paul Martin's government. Let's face it, he told me, there is not a chance in hell that Canadians will ever elect Stephen Harper. Not only did they do so, but even more surprisingly, his minority government has set a record for longevity. If you ask me for an assessment of the Harper era, the most important factor in judging any political leader is win-ability and survivability.
Our two pollsters on the program this Sunday did not have encouraging words for the Liberals. Bruce Anderson from Harris / Decima told us nothing in the polls points to the kind of "kick the bums out" mood one usually finds before a government defeat. And Frank Graves from EKOS noted that over a period of five years, Harper's core vote has never wavered from thirty to thirty five per cent. Since that is unlikely to change in an election campaign, both pollsters agree Liberals, if they have any chance of winning, need to take votes from the NDP or the Bloc which is difficult to say the least. Do the math. If Harper has a third of the electorate and the opposition have to share the rest between three of them, Harper can win every time. Still, campaigns can change outcomes.
Our panelists on Harper's five years, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Peter Harder and former NDP National Director Robin Sears, agreed that the Conservatives get credit for their careful management of the global economic crisis and a war. Both of them feel that Harper has had far more success with politics but has failed on policy. He has so far left behind nothing enduring; no policy monuments. That will be his challenge if he pulls off an election victory.
A lengthy interview this week with Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney showed why Time magazine cited him as one of the world's most influential men. They also called him "wicked smart. "
The governor observed that the movement of wealth and power from Europe and North America to Asia was a paradigm shift and a permanent one. He underlined the crucial importance to Canada's economic future of lessening our trade dependence on the declining U.S. economy and expanding our trade with China and other booming Asian nations. Moreover he speculated on how power relationships may change globally. What nations will rise in importance within the G20, who will share global leadership with the U.S., and even compete with it. As he put it, some are going to be more equal than others.
What I liked most was Carney's admission that taxpayers should never again have to use their hard - earned dollars to bail our banks and other failed national institutions. We have to end the era of ‘too big to fail' he told CTV viewers. Good on him.
