Experts caution numbers of fully-vaccinated in hospital present 'skewed' version of reality
On the surface, the numbers appear alarming.
During first two weeks of October, statistics from the BC Centre for Disease Control show nearly a quarter of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in the province were fully vaccinated.
That appears to be sharply higher than just a month earlier.
During the week of Sept. 10, for example, fully vaccinated people represented just 13 per cent of COVID-19 hospitalizations.
But experts say to understand what the numbers actually mean about your risk of a breakthrough case that lands you in hospital, you have to look at rates within the population, rather than the raw data.
“It exists only because so much more of the population is vaccinated,” said cardiologist and epidemiologist Dr. Christopher Labos.
“So when you just look at the raw numbers, you get a skewed version of reality,” Labos said.
Labos explained that because vaccines aren’t a perfect “shield” against infection, as more and more British Columbians are fully vaccinated, more and more will become infected with COVID-19 and end up hospitalized.
“Over time we should fully expect that the percentage of people in hospital that are fully vaccinated is going to go up, because there’s just going to be more of them,” Labos said.
Dr. Brian Conway, medical director of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre, pointed out that those that are older and also at risk of disease are over-represented within the doubled-dosed group, which means the data has to be age adjusted to create a true picture of risk.
“When we adjust things for age, it reassures me, it is affecting those who we knew to be at risk of serious disease since the beginning of the pandemic,” Conway said.
Taking the same data from the first two weeks of October, the hospitalization rate for those fully vaccinated is 2.3 people for every 100,000.
The rate for those partially vaccinated is 10.4 people for every 100,000.
And for those not yet vaccinated, it soars to 51.3.
Put another way, and widening out to cover the span of a month, data from the BCCDC shows those who are unvaccinated are roughly 10 times more likely to be infected with COVID-19, 52 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 44 times more likely to die, than British Columbians who are fully vaccinated.
“The vaccines clearly and unequivocally have helped reduce the rates of COVID-19,” Lobos said.
A recent analysis from the BCCDC found two doses of any COVID-19 vaccine was approximately 95 per cent effective against hospitalization.
Even so, Conway expressed concern over his expectation that both older people and those more at-risk for serious disease will continue to account for an increasing proportion of serious COVID-19 cases.
“We need to vaccinate the unvaccinated as soon as we can. We need to consider third shots in more people in a targeted way,” Conway said, adding that arguments could be made for offering a booster to anyone 65 years or older, or those those had their second dose at least six months ago.
Last Thursday, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry noted her team was watching breakthrough cases carefully, and digging through new data and evidence around who should be getting boosters next.
“We’ll have more to say about that soon, but that is the one of the things we’re looking at in some detail,” Henry said.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Young people 'tortured' if stolen vehicle operations fail, Montreal police tell MPs
One day after a Montreal police officer fired gunshots at a suspect in a stolen vehicle, senior officers were telling parliamentarians that organized crime groups are recruiting people as young as 15 in the city to steal cars so that they can be shipped overseas.
'It was joy': Trapped B.C. orca calf eats seal meat, putting rescue on hold
A rescue operation for an orca calf trapped in a remote tidal lagoon off Vancouver Island has been put on hold after it started eating seal meat thrown in the water for what is believed to be the first time.
Man sets self on fire outside New York court where Trump trial underway
A man set himself on fire on Friday outside the New York courthouse where Donald Trump's historic hush-money trial was taking place as jury selection wrapped up, but officials said he did not appear to have been targeting Trump.
Sask. father found guilty of withholding daughter to prevent her from getting COVID-19 vaccine
Michael Gordon Jackson, a Saskatchewan man accused of abducting his daughter to prevent her from getting a COVID-19 vaccine, has been found guilty for contravention of a custody order.
Mandisa, Grammy award-winning 'American Idol' alum, dead at 47
Soulful gospel artist Mandisa, a Grammy-winning singer who got her start as a contestant on 'American Idol' in 2006, has died, according to a statement on her verified social media. She was 47.
She set out to find a husband in a year. Then she matched with a guy on a dating app on the other side of the world
Scottish comedian Samantha Hannah was working on a comedy show about finding a husband when Toby Hunter came into her life. What happened next surprised them both.
B.C. judge orders shared dog custody for exes who both 'clearly love Stella'
In a first-of-its-kind ruling, a B.C. judge has awarded a former couple joint custody of their dog.
Saskatoon police to search landfill for remains of woman missing since 2020
Saskatoon police say they will begin searching the city’s landfill for the remains of Mackenzie Lee Trottier, who has been missing for more than three years.
Shivering for health: The myths and truths of ice baths explained
In a climate of social media-endorsed wellness rituals, plunging into cold water has promised to aid muscle recovery, enhance mental health and support immune system function. But the evidence of such benefits sits on thin ice, according to researchers.