B.C.'s COVID-19 modellers 'cautiously optimistic' fourth wave is in decline
The next three weeks should see COVID-19 cases gradually decline in all regions of the province, according to projections from the B.C. COVID-19 modelling group, which is made up of professors from several top universities.
“Approximately right now we are declining at a rate of two per cent a day. That’s not very fast, but if you look at it over a period of many weeks, that will get us down to much more reasonable levels of infections,” said University of Victoria professor and modelling group member Dean Karlen.
The case numbers are projected to drop across all regions, albeit much less dramatically in Northern Health.
“So we are not seeing rapid growth in some places and rapid declines in others that are balancing out. It’s either steady or declining in all health regions across B.C., so that’s a good sign,” said SFU professor and fellow modelling group member Caroline Colijn.
The projections include a modest drop in hospitalizations and ICU admissions. But they’re only looking at the next three weeks.
“The past has demonstrated that our projections are reliable out to that kind of a time period, but beyond that, things can dramatically change,” said Karlen.
Some highly vaccinated European countries are experiencing a dramatic change in their COVID-19 numbers.
“Something has happened over the last few weeks that has caused so many countries to change from where we were - a slow decline - to a very rapid growth in COVID once again,” said Karlen. “We have to remain vigilant and realize a similar situation could happen in B.C.”
British Columbia’s vaccination rate, now just shy of 90 per cent for first doses among the eligible population, should help prevent a resurgence. But Colijn believes we need to be careful.
“I think we should still be on guard, because selection will be favouring new viruses that can get into immunized individuals,” she said.
While both Colijn and Karlen describe themselves as “cautiously optimistic” that the worst of B.C’s the fourth wave is behind us, Karlen warns "if we get overly optimistic we lower our guard, and you know what happens.”
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Doctors ask Liberal government to reconsider capital gains tax change
The Canadian Medical Association is asking the federal government to reconsider its proposed changes to capital gains taxation, arguing it will affect doctors' retirement savings.
Keeping these exotic pets is 'cruel' and 'dangerous,' Canadian animal advocates say
Canadian pet owners are finding companionship beyond dogs and cats. Tigers, alligators, scorpions and tarantulas are among some of the exotic pets they are keeping in private homes, which pose risks to public safety and animal welfare, advocates say.
Prince William and wife Kate thank public for birthday messages for son Louis
Prince William and his wife Kate thanked the public for their messages which had been sent to mark the sixth birthday of their youngest son Louis on Tuesday.
She was the closest she'd ever been to meeting her biological father. Then life dealt her a blow
Anne Marie Cavner was the closest she'd ever been to meeting her biological father, but then life dealt her a blow. From an unexpected loss to a host of new relationships, a DNA test changed her life, and she doesn't regret a thing.
How quietly promised law changes in the 2024 federal budget could impact your day-to-day life
The 2024 federal budget released last week includes numerous big spending promises that have garnered headlines. But, tucked into the 416-page document are also series of smaller items, such as promising to amend the law regarding infant formula and to force banks to label government rebates, that you may have missed.
Which foods have the most plastics? You may be surprised
'How much plastic will you have for dinner, sir? And you, ma'am?' While that may seem like a line from a satirical skit on Saturday Night Live, research is showing it's much too close to reality.
'Catch-and-kill' strategy to be a focus as testimony resumes in Trump hush money case
A veteran tabloid publisher was expected to return to the witness stand Tuesday in Donald Trump's historic hush money trial.
Quebec farmers have been protesting since December. Is anyone listening?
Upset about high interest rates, growing paperwork and heavy regulatory burdens, protesting farmers have become a familiar sight across Quebec since December.
South Korean sentenced to 14 months in jail for killing 76 cats
South Korean man has been sentenced to 14 months in prison for killing 76 cats in one of the country's most gruesome cases of animal cruelty in recent years.